Leading liquor companies have recently held important meetings one after another, conveying their determination for adjustment, reform, and channel rebalancing, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the industry. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, major baijiu enterprises have adopted measures including continuous shipment control, reducing the burden on distributors, and promoting off-take sales to lower channel inventory. Taking into account factors such as the gradual stabilization of off-take sales, the extra day in the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, and various baijiu consumption scenarios during the period, institutions judge that the actual off-take sales of baijiu during the 2026 Spring Festival are expected to remain stable, and excessive pessimism is unwarranted. A CITIC Securities research report points out that the baijiu industry is about to usher in marketing activities for the Spring Festival peak season, with channels continuously learning and absorbing the multi-dimensional reform experiences in channels and products conducted by leading enterprises following distributor conferences. It is believed that the industry may refocus on market cultivation and consumer education under new reforms and directions, promoting off-take sales and reducing the burden on distributors. Considering the factors mentioned above, the report judges that actual baijiu off-take during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to remain stable. Furthermore, given the clear trend of gradual recovery ahead, CITIC Securities is optimistic about bottom allocation opportunities in the baijiu sector. It is expected that the baijiu industry will experience a mild recovery from the bottom in 2026, and it is recommended to focus on industry leaders with strong channel control and brand premium capabilities. According to Zhitong Caijing APP, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSCI) pointed out that the baijiu industry's "five-bottom stage" resonates with the capital market's "three lows and one high." Combined with the recent successive implementation of market strategies and the approaching Spring Festival peak season, it is believed that the inflection point of this round of the baijiu adjustment cycle is near. With capital market expectations leading the way, the baijiu sector presents allocation opportunities at the cycle bottom. Regarding Hong Kong-listed baijiu stocks: ZJLD (06979): ZJLD's latest super product "Da Zhen" was officially launched previously. At the launch event, Wu Xiangdong, Chairman of the ZJLD Group, revealed that collections for Da Zhen had already reached 370 million yuan, with the number of national signed alliance merchants exceeding 2,800. Huaxin Securities previously noted that the company launched the new flagship product "Da Zhen" in the first half of the year. Positioned to synergize with the Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 series, its high quality-to-price ratio is expected to build a third growth curve for Zhen Jiu.
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