Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that looking ahead, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, the three major edible oils, and white sugar are expected to remain strong in the near term, while corn, live hogs, and cotton are expected to trade sideways.
The core theme is the forward weather premium injected by the super El Niño, combined with the upward shift in import costs after US soybeans hit "exhaustion of bearish factors" and turned range-bound with a slight upward bias.
Soybean meal is supported by the exhaustion of bearish factors, a temporary tightening of domestic supply, and the resonance of weather premiums; rapeseed meal follows soybean meal's movement.
Edible oils receive triple support: weather premiums, stronger crude oil favoring biodiesel, and the exhaustion of bearish factors in US soybeans raising soybean complex costs.
White sugar is driven by global production reduction expectations ignited by El Niño, with raw sugar strengthening, the domestic-international price spread narrowing, and the import cost support for Zhengzhou sugar rising.
Sideways-trading varieties each face their own contradictions: corn faces the game between new grain listings and state reserve purchases, with attention on the pace of reserve buying and the opening price of new grain; live hog supply remains loose, and a rebound requires the catalyst of cured meat demand kicking in or concentrated secondary fattening entries; cotton faces pressure from new cotton above and support from procurement costs below, with direction depending on seed cotton purchase prices, procurement progress, and whether peak-season orders can materialize.
The main views of Galaxy Securities are as follows: 1. Macro Environment Facing the Agricultural Futures Market
Macro environment: Last week's main themes were Federal Reserve interest rate path expectations and European debt risk divergence. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed officials unanimously supporting a 25bp rate hike and leaning toward another hike before year-end, but after September nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, several officials signaled "no need to rush rate hikes," with the market expecting no move in October and a hike in December; hawkish officials still emphasized that inflation is regaining momentum and further tightening is needed.
In Europe, French government bonds came under pressure due to fiscal concerns, with the 10-year French bond yield briefly approaching 5%, a new high since 2002, and the France-Germany spread widening to its highest since the European debt crisis, causing the euro to plunge and the dollar to strengthen passively.
Middle East geopolitics remained volatile: US sanctions on Iran escalated, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz surged, but US-Iran negotiations advanced and Trump stated he would not attack Iran before the midterm elections; Russian diesel supply was approved and the IEA released reserves to offset.
China's September foreign exchange reserves declined, gold reserves increased for the 23rd consecutive month; the super El Niño has formed.
Asset performance and trading logic: The dollar was strong on a weekly basis 鈥?the French debt crisis dragged down the euro, and the relative resilience of the US economy reinforced the dollar; US Treasuries fluctuated and bottomed 鈥?supported by the Fed's patience signals and safe-haven demand, while the $2 trillion deficit concern limited long-end rebounds; gold prices consolidated 鈥?pressured by a stronger dollar and rate hike expectations, but supported by high debt, geopolitical risks, and bargain buying; US stocks were range-bound with a slight upward bias, with economic resilience and declining consumer confidence in a tug-of-war; domestic stocks were weak after the holiday; crude oil was range-bound with a slight upward bias 鈥?hurricanes shut down over 70% of Gulf of Mexico production capacity, tanker attacks surged, and low inventories provided support, while IEA reserve releases, Russian diesel supply, and US-Iran negotiations tempered gains.
2. Recent Agricultural Futures Market Review
In early October, agricultural futures showed divergent performance. Grains: US wheat was pressured by technical selling, demand uncertainty, and a stronger dollar, with the USDA monthly report raising US wheat supply expectations, leading to a range-bound decline; US corn weakened due to accelerated harvesting and a stronger dollar, with the USDA monthly report unexpectedly raising production causing a sharp drop; Dalian corn first fell then rose after the holiday.
Oils and oilseeds: US soybeans and US soybean oil consolidated 鈥?pressured by accelerated harvesting and a stronger dollar, supported by short covering and technical buying, with the market rising rather than falling after the USDA raised US soybean production; the three major domestic edible oils and soybean meal/rapeseed meal were range-bound with a slight upward bias.
White sugar: The super El Niño triggered global sugar production reduction expectations, the FAS significantly cut India's production, raw sugar rose, and Zhengzhou sugar gapped up, though excessive gains and weak spot demand briefly caused raw sugar to pull back.
Cotton: US cotton first fell then rebounded, pressured by profit-taking and a stronger dollar, with the USDA raising production and inventories but hurricane disruptions providing support; Zhengzhou cotton first fell then rose. Live hogs consolidated after the holiday.
3. Agricultural Futures Supply-Demand Panorama Table
Current supply-demand characteristics: As of the week ending October 9, the comprehensive judgment for soybean meal and rapeseed meal is bearish, for palm oil and white sugar is bullish, and for other agricultural futures is neutral.
4. Agricultural Futures Strategy Signal Table
As of October 9, 2026, in terms of price percentile, the edible oils sector as a whole is at a historically high level; live hogs and peanuts are at historically low percentiles. Short-term volatility has risen for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live hogs, and eggs; the HV(10) percentile for soybean oil, palm oil, corn, and white sugar is at a low level, with recent price volatility converging.
For the CCI trend indicator, rapeseed oil and white sugar have recently shown strong trends, while corn and eggs have shown weak trends. Cotton basis is at a relatively high level; palm oil and white sugar basis are at historically low levels. In terms of strength signals, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are range-bound with a slight upward bias; soybean oil, palm oil, and white sugar are strong; eggs are weak; other major agricultural products are neutral.
5. Current Strategy Recommendations, Risk Warnings, and Near-Term Focus Points
Looking ahead, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, the three major edible oils, and white sugar are expected to remain strong in the near term, while corn, live hogs, and cotton are expected to trade sideways. The core theme is the forward weather premium injected by the super El Niño, combined with the upward shift in import costs after US soybeans hit "exhaustion of bearish factors" and turned range-bound with a slight upward bias.
Soybean meal is supported by the exhaustion of bearish factors, a temporary tightening of domestic supply, and the resonance of weather premiums; rapeseed meal follows soybean meal's movement. Edible oils receive triple support: weather premiums, stronger crude oil favoring biodiesel, and the exhaustion of bearish factors in US soybeans raising soybean complex costs. White sugar is driven by global production reduction expectations ignited by El Niño, with raw sugar strengthening, the domestic-international price spread narrowing, and the import cost support for Zhengzhou sugar rising.
Sideways-trading varieties each face their own contradictions: corn faces the game between new grain listings and state reserve purchases, with attention on the pace of reserve buying and the opening price of new grain; live hog supply remains loose, and a rebound requires the catalyst of cured meat demand kicking in or concentrated secondary fattening entries; cotton faces pressure from new cotton above and support from procurement costs below, with direction depending on seed cotton purchase prices, procurement progress, and whether peak-season orders can materialize.
Risk warnings: Changes in macro, crude oil, weather, trade, and geopolitical factors. Near-term focus points: (1) US September CPI, PPI, and retail data, the Fed's October rate decision, and geopolitical developments. (2) China's September CPI, PPI, import-export, and financial data. (3) USDA weekly crop harvest progress and export sales reports; Brazil soybean planting progress. (4) Weather monitoring in major crop-producing regions of India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the US, and El Niño monitoring. (5) Egg and live hog spot price trends, farming profits; the pace of domestic new grain listings. (6) Brazil sugarcane crushing progress and sugar-ethanol ratio data; Black Sea situation and logistics.
6. Driving Force Diagram
As of October 9, cotton, rapeseed oil, and peanuts are bullish from both valuation and supply-demand drivers; palm oil, white sugar, and live hogs are bearish from both valuation and supply-demand drivers; soybean meal and soybean oil have bearish supply-demand drivers and neutral valuation; rapeseed meal, eggs, and corn starch have bearish supply-demand drivers and bullish valuation; corn has neutral valuation and supply-demand drivers.
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