GLMS SEC released a research report stating that on March 28, 2026, Yemen's Houthi forces launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, drawing market attention to potential risks in Red Sea shipping lanes. Simultaneously, another crucial global oil trade route is nearly closed. The Houthi missile attacks on Israel may signal an escalation of Middle East conflict spillover into key maritime passages, with geopolitical factors potentially shifting from localized to multi-regional interconnected dynamics. International oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels. The firm recommends monitoring short-term investment opportunities in the crude oil market driven by geopolitical tensions. Key views from GLMS SEC are as follows:
Review of 2023 Houthi Incidents: On October 19, 2023, the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney intercepted multiple missiles and drones launched by Houthi forces in the Red Sea, stating that "the targets were likely aimed at Israel." On November 19, Houthi forces used helicopters to hijack the commercial vessel Galaxy Leader passing near Yemen's Red Sea waters, claiming it was retaliation for Israeli military actions in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Throughout December 2023, Houthi forces repeatedly attacked commercial ships they "believed" were linked to Israel in the Red Sea. By mid-December, major global shipping companies including Mediterranean Shipping Company, Maersk, and Evergreen Marine had announced suspensions of Red Sea routes. On October 20, 2023, WTI and Brent crude oil prices reached intraday highs approaching $90/barrel and $94/barrel respectively.
Hormuz Strait and Red Sea Oil Transport Conditions: The Red Sea connects the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, serving as a vital energy trade corridor between Eurasia and the Middle East. If shipping routes face threats causing vessel disruptions, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope could lead to reduced capacity, extended shipping times, and increased transportation costs. According to EIA data, pre-conflict crude oil and condensate transport volume through the Hormuz Strait approached 15 million barrels/day, while refined product transport reached nearly 6 million barrels/day, representing nearly one-quarter of global trade volume. As of first half 2025, total oil flow through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal reached approximately 4-5 million barrels/day, accounting for 5%-6% of global trade volume.
Oil Price Trends During Russia-Ukraine Conflict: On February 24, 2022, when Russia launched military operations against Ukraine, WTI and Brent crude prices rose by over $10/barrel within just one week. By March 7, 2022, WTI and Brent reached intraday highs near $130/barrel and $140/barrel respectively, marking historically high levels for that period. After retreating from peaks, oil prices experienced approximately two months of increases followed by three months of declines. From April 12 to June 13, 2022, WTI and Brent intraday highs rose from near $100/barrel to接近 $120/barrel. Between June 14 and September 26, 2022, WTI and Brent intraday highs declined from $120/barrel to接近 $80/barrel.
Risk Warning: Middle East geopolitical instability risks; global economic downturn risks; crude oil and natural gas price volatility risks.
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