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Copper: (Zhan Dapeng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3013795; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0013582) Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weaker. The domestic refined copper spot import window remained continuously closed, and the Comex-LME copper price spread was around 230 USD/ton. On the macroeconomic side, New York Fed President Williams, the Fed's third-ranking official, said there may be one more rate hike this year, but there is no need to continue raising rates in 2027; Fed Governor Waller said rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields are restraining demand in rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and automobiles, playing a role in tightening monetary policy to a certain extent. The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook shows that the net borrowing scale of advanced economies this year will reach 5.2% of GDP, a new high since 2021; U.S. general government net borrowing will reach 8.5% of GDP, higher than 7.1% in 2025 and further deteriorating compared with the judgment in April this year. On the inventory side, LME copper inventories fell 1,625 tons to 229,650 tons; Comex copper inventories rose 742 tons to 714,520 tons; SHFE copper warrants increased 622 tons to 9,407 tons, while BC copper warrants fell 100 tons to 3,579 tons. On the demand side, downstream users maintained just-in-time procurement, willingness to stock up at high prices was weak, and the spot market maintained a premium structure. The White House has still not made a final decision on U.S. refined copper import tariffs. U.S. copper maintains a premium structure of about 200 USD/ton relative to LME copper, which weakens the marginal benefit of refined copper trade arbitrage, but also means U.S. copper will not flow out significantly. Before this pattern breaks, the shortage of copper inventories in non-U.S. regions will keep copper prices fluctuating. Once the pattern changes, the trend may also emerge. Therefore, before policy becomes clear, it should be viewed as a range-bound market.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: (Zhu Xi, Practitioner Qualification No.: F03109968; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021609) Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.61% to 15,535 USD/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.14% to 118,280 yuan/ton. On the inventory side, LME inventories increased 276 tons to 282,504 tons, while SHFE warrants decreased 575 tons to 92,781 tons. In terms of premiums and discounts, the LME 0-3 month spread remained negative; the imported nickel premium remained at 200 yuan/ton. On the news side, on October 6, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that the 2027 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) evaluation will be faster than in 2026, and promised a fair decision on nickel ore production quotas. Its goal is to issue the 2027 nickel ore RKAB before the regulatory deadline, avoid extending the evaluation to the maximum period, and strive for early completion. On October 7, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition, who is also the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, said the government plans to further tighten the suspension order on new nickel smelters producing semi-finished products, although the relevant suspension policy has already been stipulated in Government Regulation No. 28 of 2025. On October 8, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto went to Central Halmahera in North Maluku province to launch downstreaming projects worth a total of 10.2 billion USD (about 180 trillion Indonesian rupiah) at PT Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park (IWIP). From a fundamental perspective, nickel ore prices, premiums, and sulfur prices weakened month-on-month. Due to pressure from climate, electricity, and other factors, some segments of the industrial chain saw production cuts in October, but the current production cuts have not yet been much reflected in inventories. The pressure from quota increases and weakening theoretical cost support remains. In the short term, prices may run in a low range, but it is necessary to watch supply-side production-cut variables, Indonesian policy, and guard against macroeconomic disturbances.
Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: (Wang Heng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3080733; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0020715) Overnight, alumina AO2701 closed at 2,638 yuan/ton, down 0.57%. Open interest increased 6,502 lots to 276,000 lots. Overnight LME closed at 3,038 USD/ton, down 0.3%, with inventories stable at 238,600 tons. Shanghai aluminum AL2611 closed at 23,355 yuan/ton, down 0.45%, with open interest falling 826 lots to 240,000 lots. Aluminum alloy AD2612 closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. Open interest increased 1,023 lots to 20,439 lots. On the spot side, SMM alumina prices fell back to 2,667 yuan/ton. Aluminum ingot spot premiums were 50 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 quotes fell back to 23,800 yuan/ton, while Wuxi A00 quoted a discount of 30 yuan/ton. Aluminum billet processing fees were stable in many regions, with Xinjiang, Nanchang, and Guangdong raised by 50 yuan/ton and Wuxi lowered by 40 yuan/ton; aluminum rod 1A60 series processing fees were stable, 6/8 series processing fees were stable, and low-carbon 6/8 series were lowered by 143 yuan/ton. Progress in signing next year's long-term contracts for Guinea ore continues to provide support for forward alumina costs. Domestic alumina plants continue to consume raw material stocks, and subsequently face pressure from higher new long-term contract prices. The current futures market is close to the cash cost of high-cost regions such as Shanxi, and alumina valuation has entered a support level. The strong dollar and high interest rate environment suppress non-ferrous valuations. Coupled with the fading Middle East risk premium and accelerated resumption of production at Middle Eastern smelters, it can be seen that LME long sentiment cooled significantly during China's holiday period, and the LME destocking pace gradually stalled. At the same time, domestic "Golden September" demand recovery fell short of expectations, and the market is also lowering expectations for "Silver October" demand. At present, the bottom support for aluminum prices is still relatively solid, and the possibility of a large rally is relatively low amid diverging overseas sentiment. Post-holiday aluminum ingot arrivals and the pace of downstream resumption are observation points for short-term aluminum price performance.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: (Wang Heng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3080733; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0020715) On the 13th, industrial silicon fluctuated stronger, with the main 2611 contract closing at 8,695 yuan/ton, up 0.23% intraday, and open interest falling 11,848 lots to 179,000 lots. Baiinfo industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,232 yuan/ton, stable compared with the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable price was raised to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 135 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weaker, with the main 2611 contract closing at 35,095 yuan/ton, down 0.9% intraday. Open interest fell 4,405 lots to 78,849 lots; the lowest deliverable price slightly fell back to 39,220 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 3,520 yuan/ton. At the end of September, silicon plants in Southwest China began arranging production stoppages, while scattered restarts of large furnaces in Northwest China offset some of the reduction. Actual October reductions may be lower than expected. If large-scale polysilicon production cuts are confirmed around mid-month, industrial silicon may face the risk of demand collapse. Polysilicon material plant inventories further increased, and spot premiums rose again. October large orders have not yet been signed. Only some wafer manufacturers with low raw material inventories and overseas traceability orders released a small amount of purchasing willingness. Most wafer plants still have one to two months of operating inventory, and post-holiday pickup increments are unlikely to exceed expectations. Polysilicon bottom support is already present, while an upward turning point has not yet appeared. Track whether new signals emerge in energy consumption and other policies, as well as post-holiday downstream resumption and industrial chain bargaining. Whether the pace and scale of silicon material plant production cuts in October can form actual destocking will be the decisive factor.
Lithium Carbonate: (Zhu Xi, Practitioner Qualification No.: F03109968; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021609) Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2701 fell 1.67% to 107,060 yuan/ton, with daily open interest falling 6,647 lots to 422,000 lots. On the spot price side, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 3,750 yuan/ton to 111,650 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell 3,750 yuan/ton to 108,150 yuan/ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 4,000 yuan/ton to 102,000 yuan/ton. On the warrant side, yesterday warrant inventories decreased 1,034 tons to 29,643 tons. On the supply side, weekly lithium carbonate output fell 699 tons month-on-month to 25,895 tons. October lithium carbonate output is expected to fall 370 tons month-on-month to 118,071 tons. On the demand side, October ternary material output is expected to increase 3% month-on-month to 84,110 tons, LFP output is expected to increase 4% month-on-month to 640,000 tons, lithium cobalt oxide output is expected to decrease 9% month-on-month to 5,760 tons, and lithium manganese oxide output is expected to decrease 6% month-on-month to 10,400 tons; lithium battery output is expected to increase 6% month-on-month to 320.4 GWh. On the inventory side, weekly inventories fell 9,260 tons month-on-month to 139,517 tons, of which upstream increased 201 tons month-on-month to 31,342 tons, cathode plants decreased 8,347 tons month-on-month to 42,952 tons, traders decreased 1,445 tons month-on-month to 45,225 tons, and battery cell plants and others increased 331 tons month-on-month to 19,998 tons. In the short term, from a monthly balance perspective, the October destocking pace may accelerate compared with last month. However, current market sentiment is weak, macroeconomic disturbances continue, and from a fundamental perspective, strong reality has repeatedly been weakened while weak expectations continue to be reinforced. Prices fell rapidly earlier, and short-term attention should be paid to market sentiment.
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