On May 8, the cryptocurrency market continued its upward trend, with the price of Bitcoin rising to around $81,600 per coin. Remarks from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleviated concerns about further military escalation, putting downward pressure on both the US dollar and oil prices, thereby creating new room for the revaluation of risk assets. RYOEX indicated that over the past three months, BTC has climbed from approximately $63,000 to above $80,000, driven by sustained inflows of institutional capital and reasonable leverage levels, collectively supporting the continuation of the bullish trend. The institution's analysis suggests that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next target level around $85,000 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, BTC has risen above a key cost baseline, with perpetual contract funding rates turning from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. RYOEX believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure around $82,000 per coin, and further price increases could trigger hedging-related buying, providing additional upward momentum. The institution assesses that while Bitcoin futures open interest is approaching the historical high of 800,000 coins, the perpetual funding rate remains in a slightly positive range, suggesting the market is not yet showing signs of overheating or excessive crowding, with the capital structure remaining healthy.
On the macroeconomic front, a marginal easing of geopolitical tensions and a decline in oil prices have collectively alleviated market concerns about the inflation trajectory. A marginal drop in US Treasury yields has reduced downward pressure on the valuation anchor for risk assets. Institutions have observed that long-term Bitcoin holders' positions remain relatively stable, selling pressure from miners is moderate, and there are no significant signs of deterioration in market structure. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also important indicators for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market, and should be analyzed comprehensively alongside multidimensional data. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes can hold above key levels is far more instructive than intraday volatility, and multi-cycle observation helps filter out noise.
RYOEX anticipates that Bitcoin may continue to test the $85,000 per coin target in the short term, with directional moves more likely to be driven by macroeconomic data and institutional capital behavior. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control, paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's policy path, Treasury yield trends, regulatory developments, and spot ETF fund flows. Investors should avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and adapt to market transition phases with a rational approach.
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