According to data from Omdia, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 fell 20% year-on-year to 254.7 million units, marking the lowest third-quarter figure since 2013.
Rising prices have suppressed consumer demand, with emerging markets suffering the most severe impact. Samsung and Apple (AAPL.US) led in market share, while OPPO and vivo saw notable declines.
Global smartphone shipments are expected to drop 12% in 2026, and the market is projected to continue declining in 2027, though at a narrower rate, with cost pressures persisting.
According to Omdia data, global smartphone shipments fell 20% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 to 254.7 million units, hitting a new low for a third quarter since 2013.
Smartphone prices continued to rise, further dampening consumer demand, particularly in emerging markets. Ahead of the holiday sales season, distributors and retailers also remained cautious about restocking, as rising device costs increased working capital requirements, thereby limiting inventory buildup.
Performance of Major Vendors
Samsung maintained its position as the world's top smartphone vendor by market share, shipping 57.8 million units, down 5% year-on-year. While other Android brands faced memory supply constraints and rising prices, the Galaxy A series targeting the entry-level and mid-range segments helped Samsung remain competitive, supporting its shipments and global market leadership. Meanwhile, the Galaxy Z8 series launched in August further strengthened Samsung's position in the premium market, supported by trade-in and upgrade programs.
Apple's iPhone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 reached 56.5 million units, flat compared to the same period last year despite the global market decline. Continued demand for the iPhone 17 and channel stockpiling ahead of anticipated price increases together supported demand resilience in China and North America, offsetting weaker performance in major emerging markets. In September, Apple launched the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable model, the iPhone Duo, while delaying the base iPhone 18 to 2027. This strategy extended the iPhone 17 sales cycle while concentrating new product demand for the holiday season on premium models.
OPPO (including realme and OnePlus) ranked fourth with 23.4 million units shipped, down 39% year-on-year; vivo ranked fifth with 19.3 million units shipped, down 33% year-on-year. To cope with rising component costs, both vendors continued to raise prices in core markets, putting greater pressure on channel inventory planning.
Market Dynamics: Affordability Pressure Intensifies, Emerging Markets Hit Hardest
Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Omdia, said: "Emerging markets were once the main pillar of global smartphone shipment growth, but now they bear the greatest pressure from rising prices. The Africa market saw the largest decline at 39% year-on-year. Although underlying demand still exists, rising costs are prompting vendors to shift their focus from aggressive expansion and market share competition toward protecting margins and selectively shipping products. Shipments in Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China), the Middle East, and Latin America also fell by more than 20% each. Currency depreciation, inflation, and rising living costs further weakened purchasing power, prompting consumers to delay upgrades or turn to refurbished smartphones; in some low-income markets, consumers have even had to opt for feature phones. In contrast, the North American market performed relatively steadily, supported by its premium-focused market structure and mature carrier device financing, trade-in, and upgrade programs."
Against the backdrop of continued component supply constraints, smartphone vendors primarily targeting the mass market are increasingly prioritizing resources toward profitable markets and core product portfolios. To remain competitive, vendors are adjusting RAM and storage configurations, streamlining SKUs, and selectively absorbing some cost increases themselves, while expanding high-value product portfolios to protect profitability.
Market Outlook: Rising Costs and Inventory Pressure to Suppress Smartphone Demand in 2026-2027
Amber Liu, Head of Smartphone at Omdia, said: "Omdia expects global smartphone shipments to decline 12% in 2026. Further price increases, combined with limited promotional discount room, are expected to suppress demand during the holiday sales season. In addition to rising component costs, vendors also face growing inventory risks as they balance existing stock with new-generation products. Telecom operators and large retailers are better positioned to cope with rising device prices and increased working capital requirements. Meanwhile, independent retailers face the dual pressure of slower inventory turnover and narrowing margins, which may accelerate their exit from the market."
The global smartphone market is expected to continue declining in 2027, but at a narrower rate. The ongoing shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), combined with constrained supply of conventional memory, is expected to keep costs elevated, making it difficult for smartphone vendors to see any significant relief in cost pressure. Vendors are expected to optimize sales, retail, and marketing costs while seeking additional revenue through software, services, and after-sales businesses. A solid balance sheet, lean inventory, and efficient operations will be key for vendors and channel partners to build competitive advantages.
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