Emerging from the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China has witnessed its economic strength, technological capabilities, defense prowess, and comprehensive national power ascend to new heights, achieving substantial gains through trials and tribulations. As we step into the 15th Five-Year Plan period, how will the Chinese economy commence its opening chapter amidst a world still fraught with variables? China's economic choices and trajectory are not only pivotal for its own development but also draw global attention. In 2026, let us collectively explore the certainties of the Chinese economy through the lenses of stability and progress, internal and external dynamics, and breaking and establishing.
The advantages of long-termism lay a solid foundation for development. In 2025, China's total economic output reached a new level, employment remained generally stable, living standards continued to improve, and key risks were effectively mitigated. These tangible changes have allowed people to genuinely feel the economy's resilience. However, uncertainties in the external environment and transformation pressures in certain sectors have also raised concerns: can this "stability" be maintained in 2026? Whether the momentum of stable and improved economic performance can continue is the primary concern for the inaugural year, impacting both the macroeconomic landscape and the livelihoods of millions of households.
Seeking progress while maintaining stability remains the overarching principle for economic work. The fundamental conditions and basic trends supporting China's long-term economic growth remain unchanged, as does the broader momentum for high-quality development, providing a foundation and conditions for sustaining stable and positive economic operations. Confidence stems from a solid and robust fundamental base. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economic aggregate achieved "four consecutive leaps," successively surpassing thresholds of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, 130 trillion, and 140 trillion yuan. The economic increment over five years exceeded 36 trillion yuan, making the nation's development foundation more substantial and its space broader, thereby cultivating advantages and accumulating confidence for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Confidence also derives from increasingly evident multiple advantages. China possesses the advantages of its socialist system with Chinese characteristics, enabling it to concentrate resources on major undertakings and effectively respond to various risks and challenges. It boasts the advantage of a super-large market, with over 1.4 billion people, including 940 million urban residents, forming a vast, multi-tiered, and potential-rich domestic market. The advantage of a complete industrial system is clear, with manufacturing value-added leading the world for 16 consecutive years, continuously highlighting economies of scale and full industrial chain advantages. Furthermore, abundant human resources are a key strength, with the total number of R&D personnel ranking first globally, harboring significant opportunities for technological innovation and demographic dividends.
Confidence is further bolstered by precise and forceful policy guidance. In 2026, China will continue to implement more proactive and impactful macroeconomic policies, increasing the intensity of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. More proactive fiscal policy will be precise and effective, maintaining necessary expenditure intensity while ensuring funds are spent where most needed, benefiting people's livelihoods, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing future potential. Appropriately accommodative monetary policy will be flexible and effective, with particular emphasis on strengthening support for key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises.
Confidence ultimately springs from a consensus of daring to strive and pioneer. The Chinese economy has always developed through weathering storms and grown stronger by overcoming tests. We have the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee, a strong desire for a better life, and, crucially, the tenacity, pioneering spirit, and drive to tackle challenges. Shortly after New Year's Day 2026, some localities advanced their traditional "first meeting after the Spring Festival" to a "first meeting of the new year," focusing on deploying work related to technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, optimizing the business environment, and improving livelihoods, sending a strong signal of seizing the day and making the most of the time.
The Chinese economy in 2026 is underpinned by substantial accumulated foundations and supported by multiple factors including macroeconomic policy impetus, the growth of new quality productive forces, and the release of market vitality. The momentum of stability and improvement can not only be consolidated but will also accumulate kinetic energy for "progress" on the basis of "stability." More importantly, China's Five-Year Plans, characterized by "drawing a blueprint to the end" and "working relentlessly generation after generation," form an unparalleled advantage of long-termism, making China's future entirely predictable.
Domestic demand-led growth promotes market expansion and upgrading. Approximately 595 million cross-regional passenger trips were recorded nationwide, domestic scenic spot ticket bookings surged over fourfold year-on-year, and daily average sales at key monitored enterprises in Beijing during the holiday increased by 16.3% year-on-year—the vibrant activity during the 2026 New Year holiday period secured a strong "opening red" for the annual consumer market. Fully leveraging policy effects to guide social capital into promoting consumption and expanding investment; increasing the supply of high-quality services while addressing issues like credit, standards, and safety management; accelerating the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector and implementing the paid leave system—since the beginning of 2026, the State Council's executive meetings have consecutively addressed domestic demand expansion twice, targeting pain points with precision.
"Can there be more enjoyable weekend destinations? Can elderly care and childcare become more worry-free? Can the roads back to our hometowns for the New Year be better maintained?"—The concerns in people's daily lives precisely highlight the potential for expanding domestic demand. Strong supply coupled with weak demand represents a "growing pain" in the current operation of the Chinese economy. In 2025, final consumption expenditure contributed over half of economic growth, yet issues like relatively low household consumption rates and weakening investment momentum constrained the release of domestic demand potential. "Adhering to a domestic demand-led approach and building a strong domestic market" was listed as the primary task for 2026 economic work by the Central Economic Work Conference.
In today's world, the scarcest resource is the market. China possesses the most growth-oriented and potentially largest domestic demand market globally. In terms of consumption, total retail sales of consumer goods have exceeded 50 trillion yuan, and China is already the largest market globally in numerous segments like automobiles, mobile phones, and home appliances. However, per capita consumption expenditure still lags behind developed economies, and demand for service consumption in areas like elderly and child care, culture and entertainment, and medical health remains insufficiently met. Regarding investment, China's per capita stock of infrastructure capital is only 20% to 30% that of developed countries, indicating significant room for investment in短板 areas, weak links, and new fields and tracks.
Revitalizing consumption hinges on enhancing capacity, optimizing supply, and improving the environment—Enabling people to "dare to consume"关键在于 increasing disposable income and ensuring job security. Relevant authorities are currently studying and formulating actions for stabilizing and expanding employment and improving quality, as well as plans for increasing urban and rural residents' income. For young groups like college graduates, a new round of employment promotion policies and measures will be researched and formulated. Simultaneously, support will be given to stabilize employment in labor-intensive industries, tap employment potential in the digital economy, green economy, and services for "the old and the young," and expand employment space in county-level economies and rural revitalization.
Making people "willing to consume"核心在于 upgrading supply and optimizing experiences. In 2026, the replacement of old consumer goods will support green and smart products with greater intensity—for instance, appliance replacement programs will target products with Grade 1 energy or water efficiency, and smart glasses will be included in subsidy ranges. This both benefits the public and opens market space for new technologies and products. Policies for首发经济, event economy, and "AI+" consumption will be accelerated, new growth points in service consumption like household services and wellness tourism—potentially reaching trillion-yuan scale—are expected to expand, and immersive, experiential new scenarios will continuously emerge.
Ensuring people "are able to consume"重点在于 relaxing market access and unleashing potential. Continuously clearing unreasonable restrictive measures in the consumption sector, supporting qualified regions in promoting spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, effectively implementing staggered paid leave for employees, and building the "Shop in China" brand will make the consumption environment more friendly and顺畅.
Expanding investment核心在于 precision and effectiveness, enhancing future potential, and benefiting livelihoods—Tightly integrating investment in physical assets and investment in human capital. Coordinating the revitalization of consumption and the expansion of investment, accelerating the construction of consumption infrastructure like parking lots, charging piles, and tourist highways, increasing the proportion of livelihood-oriented investments in areas like elderly care, childcare, and healthcare, and high-quality advancement of urban renewal projects.
Leveraging the role of government investment effectively. Utilizing funds from central budget内投资, ultra-long-term special government bonds, and local government special bonds optimally, improving the implementation of "两重" projects, advancing the implementation of qualified major projects from the 15th Five-Year Plan ahead of schedule, and leveraging the牵引 effect of major engineering projects.
Implementing more concrete measures to boost confidence in private investment. Effectively implementing measures to further promote private investment development, supporting private enterprises' participation in major projects in sectors like railways and nuclear power, and guiding private investment towards new tracks such as high-tech and services.
New quality productive forces integrate into economic life. In 2025, China's innovation achievements emerged one after another, with landmark products making major breakthroughs in fields like AI large models, humanoid robots, and innovative drugs, continuously transforming innovation "potential energy" into economic "kinetic energy." Looking ahead to 2026, what surprises will the development of new quality productive forces bring? It may no longer be just about impressive individual hardware products but, like water and electricity, become more deeply integrated into the fabric of the nation's economic development and into tangibly perceptible daily life.
New quality productive forces are embedded in breakthroughs in "high-precision" areas. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference proposed building international sci-tech innovation centers in Beijing (Jing-Jin-Ji), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In the 2025 Global Top 100 Innovation Clusters ranking, Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai-Suzhou ranked 1st, 4th, and 6th respectively. The expansion of these three international sci-tech innovation centers will further aggregate innovation factors and催生 more landmark, original innovation outcomes. China will implement a new round of high-quality development actions for key industrial chains, deeply execute the industrial foundation reengineering project and major technical equipment攻关工程, further enhancing industrial chain resilience. Focusing on cultivating new动能, China will accelerate the development of strategic emerging industrial clusters in new energy, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy, etc., and promote quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interface, etc., to become new economic growth points. Furthermore, the national venture capital guiding fund—a trillion-yuan scale fund—will adhere to investing early, small, long-term, and in hard tech, increasing support for strategic emerging industries and future industries, using patient capital to accompany enterprises in a "long-distance run," nurturing "little giants" and "unicorns" across countless industries.
New quality productive forces are hidden within the upgrading of "old industries." The deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation lies not only in creating "from scratch" new industries but also in enabling traditional industries to evolve "from good to excellent." As the "basic plate" of China's industrial system, traditional industries account for about 80% of manufacturing value-added. Most of these industries are foundational and related to people's livelihoods, constituting both China's competitive advantages and the fundamental support for economic growth, mass income, and employment. Empowered by digitalization and intelligence and undergoing transformation and upgrading, traditional industries can同样孕育 new industries and form new quality productive forces. In 2026, China will coordinate the implementation of the traditional industry renewal action and the action to develop and strengthen emerging industries to create new动能, deeply advance the major technological transformation and upgrading project, strengthen standard leadership, quality improvement, and brand building, and consolidate and enhance the status and competitiveness of industries like metallurgy, light industry, and machinery in the global industrial division of labor. In 2026, China will also implement the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement action, promoting the extension of producer services towards specialization and the high end of the value chain, and facilitating the high-quality, diversified, and convenient development of consumer services.
New quality productive forces are concealed within the enhancement of life quality. Technology changes life, and we will see more "good ideas" from the laboratory transformed into "good products" for daily life. As AI empowers numerous industries, we will experience smarter customer service, more personalized medical and educational advice, and more efficient government services; home products and entertainment equipment will become more "understanding"; a more完善的 charging infrastructure layout will reduce "concerns" for new energy vehicle travel; green production and lifestyles will gradually普及, making green food and energy-saving appliances consumption hotspots; the supply of domestic trendy products and elderly-friendly products will also become increasingly abundant.
The development of new quality productive forces will also reshape the human resource structure. Automation may replace some repetitive jobs, but it simultaneously催生大量 new professions: industrial robot system operators, AI trainers, digital solution designers... These positions often offer higher remuneration but require entirely new skill sets. Relevant departments will focus on fields related to new quality productive forces like AI, new energy vehicles, and the low-altitude economy, as well as urgent social needs like elderly care and家政服务, optimizing training supply to enable more people to illuminate their career prospects with new skills.
Deepening reform and opening up brings new vitality. The greater the difficulties and challenges, the more imperative it is to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, seeking momentum from reform and vitality from opening up. Currently, the construction of a unified national market still faces some blockages and bottlenecks, with local protectionism, market segmentation, and regional barriers persisting despite repeated prohibitions. In 2026, China will adhere to the principle of simultaneously establishing and breaking down, continuing to advance the construction of a unified national market in depth.
"Establishing" institutional rules. Formulating regulations for the construction of a unified national market to achieve uniformity in systems for market access, fair competition, quality standards, etc.; accelerating the issuance of lists of encouraged and prohibited items for local investment promotion to delineate red lines and bottom lines, targeting practices where some localities provide irregular incentives like tax benefits, land, or electricity prices, or even incur debt for subsidies; promoting the improvement of fiscal and taxation systems, statistical accounting systems, and assessment and evaluation systems conducive to market unity.
"Breaking" hidden barriers. Continuously advancing the rectification of issues in areas like违规返还财税奖补 and public bidding. Simultaneously, standardizing enterprise-related law enforcement,深入整治 "involution-style" competition, and making greater efforts to resolve the problem of拖欠企业账款.
For enterprises, this means that various hidden barriers and costs associated with cross-regional operations are expected to decrease, and the flow of factors like talent and capital will become smoother. For localities, this implies the weakening of traditional policy洼地 effects, and regional competition will rely more on technological innovation capability, factor allocation efficiency, and business environment optimization.
China's large market is also a major opportunity for the world. On December 18, 2025, the island-wide customs closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port was officially launched. The first month of closure yielded impressive results: the total value of goods imports and exports at Hainan's open ports reached 16.368 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6%; inbound and outbound passengers numbered 289,100, up 31.3%, with the daily average of visa-free入境 foreigners reaching 2,600, a surge of 64.3%.
Regardless of changes in the external environment, China remains unwavering in its commitment to opening up, and its doors will only open wider. In 2026, China will continue to steadily advance institutional opening, align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, and cultivate new opening advantages. It will orderly expand independent opening in service sectors like value-added telecommunications, biotechnology, and wholly foreign-owned hospitals, and accelerate the pilot demonstrations for expanding service sector opening. It will vigorously promote the effective implementation of Hainan Free Trade Port closure policies, further enhancing the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Supporting pilot free trade zones in conducting bolder trials of institutional opening in areas like market access, environmental standards, and government procurement. While actively developing trade in services, digital trade, and green trade, China will also expand imports with greater intensity, hosting over a hundred import promotion activities themed around "Sharing the Large Market · Exporting to China."
On January 19, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook update, raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for China by 0.3 percentage points. Upward revisions to China's growth expectations have become a collective move by multiple international institutions. The inherent stability and long-term growth potential of the Chinese economy enable it to navigate cycles and advance steadily, injecting more certainty into the world economy while achieving its own stable development.
Will China's economy be better in 2026? Each of us is both a questioner and an answerer. The answer is written in the struggles of each day, in the advancement of every reform, and in the persistence behind each innovation. In the new year, let us strive together for our dreams and work hard for happiness, transforming grand visions into a beautiful reality.
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