美股狂飙却暗藏"魔鬼"!发生了什么?

招商宏观静思录2023-02-02

美联储价格型政策影响短端美债,数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分,但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合:美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落;未来数月或将面临最差组合:美国经济开始衰退、10Y美债收益率反而无动于衷。继续降速加息,市场的鸽派解读略显不妥:1)美联储宣布加息25BP,维持950亿美元/月缩表计划,符合市场预期。2)继续降速加息与...

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