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Goldman Sachs has shifted to a progressively cautious stance on the mainland China logistics sector in a recent research report. The report noted that the slowdown in the broader online consumption environment, combined with overcapacity, has jointly intensified the supply-demand imbalance, prompting the bank to lower its industry volume year-on-year growth forecasts for 2026 to 2028 to 5%, 4%, and 4%, respectively.
Under pressure from the lack of upward momentum in pricing and rising depreciation costs at sorting centers, total industry profit growth is expected to slow significantly. The bank projects it will drop from 44% in the second quarter of 2026 to 13% in the third quarter, and further narrow to 3% in the fourth quarter.
Facing these industry headwinds, Goldman Sachs made targeted adjustments to individual stocks. Due to continuous market share loss, the bank downgraded Yunda to "Sell," while cutting both S.F. Holding Co., Ltd. (6936.HK) and ZTO Express (2057.HK) to "Neutral." YTO Express, meanwhile, saw its rating upgraded to "Neutral" against the trend, thanks to improvements in its cost control capabilities.
Notably, JD Logistics (2618.HK) became the only stock in the sector for which Goldman Sachs maintained a "Buy" rating, making it the bank's top pick in the industry.
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