Spotify's Q2 Results Beat Estimates

Tiger Newspress2021-07-28

Spotify technology s.a. announces financial results for second quarter 2021.Its subscriber growth, revenue, gross margin, and operating Income -- performed better than expected this quarter.

FINANCIAL METRICS

Revenue

Revenue of €2,331 million grew 23% Y/Y in Q2 (or 28% Y/Y on a constant currency basis) and was toward the top end of our guidance range due to significant advertising strength and subscriber outperformance. FX headwinds of 430 bps were 230 bps greater than expected, primarily driven by US dollar weakness vs. the Euro. Premium Revenue grew 17% Y/Y to €2,056 million (or 20% Y/Y constant currency) while Ad-Supported Revenue was particularly strong, growing 110% Y/Y to €275 million (or 126% Y/Y constant currency).

Within Premium, average revenue per user (“ARPU”) of €4.29 in Q2 was down 3% Y/Y (or flat Y/Y constant currency vs. down 1% Y/Y in Q1). Excluding the impact of FX, we saw a benefit to ARPU from our Q1 price increases along with a marginal initial impact from Q2 price increases, offset by the impact of product mix shift.

Ad-Supported Revenue outperformed our forecast, driven by strong underlying demand (benefiting sellout and pricing) and aided by favorable comps vs. last year's COVID-19 lows. The strength in Ad-Supported Revenue was led by our Direct and Podcast sales channels, with the latter benefiting from a triple-digit Y/Y gain at existing Spotify studios (The Ringer, Parcast, Spotify Studios, and Gimlet) along with contributions from the Megaphone acquisition, the exclusive licensing of the Joe Rogan Experience, and Higher Ground. Ad Studio grew 165% Y/Y due to the success of the video product within Ad Studio and international market contributions.

We are very pleased with the initial performance of the Spotify Audience Network which launched in the US in April. The rollout allowed us to increase our monetizable podcast inventory in the US by nearly 3x. Additionally, for opted-in podcast publishers we’ve seen a double digit increase in fill rates, a meaningful increase in unique advertisers, and a double digit lift in CPMs. On July 1, we expanded the Spotify Audience Network to include Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

Gross Margin

Gross Margin finished at 28.4% in Q2, above the top end of our guidance range and reflecting 308 bps of Y/Y expansion. While we did benefit from the release of accruals for prior period publishing royalty estimates, excluding the impact of these items, Gross Margin would have been 26.5%, ahead of our expectations. The Gross Margin improvement excluding these releases was driven by a favorable revenue mix shift towards podcasts, marketplace activity, and Other Cost of Revenue efficiencies (e.g. payment fees, streaming delivery costs), which were partially offset by higher non-music and other content costs and publishing rate increases.

Premium Gross Margin was 30.8% in Q2, up 261 bps Y/Y and Ad-Supported Gross Margin was 11.3% in Q2, up 2,321 bps Y/Y. As a reminder, all content costs related to podcast investment are included in the Ad-Supported business for the current and historical periods.

Operating Expenses

Operating Expenses totaled €651 million in Q2, an increase of 1% Y/Y (or 5% Y/Y constant currency) and in line with our plan. Excluding the benefits of currency movements, Operating Expenses were modestly higher than forecast as lower than expected marketing expenses arising from campaign timing shifts were offset by higher personnel costs.

Social Charges were approximately €2 million higher than forecast due to an increase in our share price during the quarter. Excluding the impact of Social Charges in both periods, Operating Expenses grew roughly in line with revenue. As a reminder, Social Charges are payroll taxes associated with employee salaries and benefits, including share-based compensation. We are subject to social taxes in several countries in which we operate, although Sweden accounts for the bulk of the social costs. We don’t forecast stock price changes in our guidance so upward or downward movements will impact our reported operating expenses.

At the end of Q2, our workforce consisted of 7,085 FTEs globally.

Product and Platform

During the quarter, we continued to increase the pace of our innovation efforts. On June 16, we soft-launched Spotify Greenroom, a redesigned version of Betty Lab’s Locker Room app, as part of our entry into the live audio space. This mobile app allows users to join or host live audio rooms, and optionally turn those conversations into podcasts. Additionally, we announced a Creator Fund bringing new exciting content to users and helping those creators get rewarded for the content they create on the platform. We expect to move to a full commercial launch of Spotify Greenroom later this year, with an initial focus on sports, pop culture, music, and entertainment.

During the quarter, we began rolling out our paid subscription platform for podcasters in the US. Additionally, as part of our Spotify Open Access platform strategy, we announced several new partnerships aimed at opening our platform to third-party paywalled content with the goal of becoming the world’s leading audio browser. On May 20, we partnered with Storytel, one of the world’s leading audiobook streaming services, to give Storytel subscribers the ability to enjoy their library of audiobooks on Spotify. On July 27, we announced more than 10 new Spotify Open Access partners -- with more to come -- all of which will be able to activate their subscriber base on Spotify while retaining full control over their content.

We continue to improve our search capability expanding our functionality to include filters and voice search making it quicker and more efficient for users to find content. Additionally, we rolled out a new version of Your Library to all Spotify mobile users that creates a streamlined way for listeners to explore their collection and find saved music and podcasts more easily.

During the quarter, we also advanced our product ubiquity efforts in a number of key areas. We introduced a new miniplayer experience that allows listeners to share, explore, and discover audio from Spotify directly within Facebook, without switching between apps. On the Apple Watch, we rolled out the capability for users to download playlists, albums, and podcasts to their watch. Finally, we expanded our video podcast footprint to Xbox gaming consoles and went live with the Spotify X1 integration to Rogers Communications customers in Canada.

Content

At the end of Q2, we had 2.9 million podcasts on the platform (up from 2.6 million at the end of Q1). The percentage of MAUs that engaged with podcast content on our platform improved modestly relative to Q1. Among MAUs that engaged with podcasts in Q2, consumption trends were strong (up 95% Y/Y in aggregate and more than 30% Y/Y on a per user basis) while week-over-week and month-over-month retention rates reached all-time highs. During the quarter, podcast share of overall consumption hours on our platform also reached an all-time high.

During the quarter, we announced exclusive licensing deals with Call Her Daddy and Armchair Expert, both of which are now exclusively on Spotify. The Joe Rogan Experience continues to perform above expectations, and The Ringer shows, such as The Bill Simmons Podcast, grew consumption significantly as the NBA headed into the playoffs.

Internationally, we released 100 new Originals & Exclusives (“O&E”) podcasts across markets including 5 adaptations of existing formats. We expanded Your Daily Drive to include Mexico (Ruta Diaria), Argentina (Ruta Diaria), and Brazil (Caminho Diário). The launches included bespoke content from 28 partners across the region, such as notable new organizations like Infobae and La Nación (Argentina), W Radio (Mexico), and 123 Segundos (Brazil), a Spotify original. One of the top podcasts in India, The Ranveer Show, which covers topics like health, spirituality, and lifestyle, also came exclusively to Spotify in June.

In Q2, Olivia Rodrigo’s album,SOUR, set the record for biggest streaming debut for any album on Spotify this year with over 63 million global first day streams. Other major releases in the quarter include BTS single,Butter,Griff’s Album,One Foot In Front Of The Other,and Doja Cat’s album,Planet Her.Spotify also launched a new Fresh Finds marketing program to celebrate Indie artists in the US as well as expanding the playlist via localized editions in 13 territories around the world. Fresh Finds, which first launched in 2016, has playlisted over 25,000 artists and built a reputation among users and in the industry as the go-to destination to discover new Indie acts. In addition, of artists whose first editorial playlist is Fresh Finds, over 44% go on to be playlisted in another editorial property on Spotify.

Two-Sided Marketplace

We continue to test Discovery Mode with a small set of labels and licensors including major labels, independent labels, and independent artist distributors. Thus far, artists with tracks in Discovery Mode have found over 40% more listeners on average compared to pre-Discovery Mode. Additionally, 44% of those listeners had never listened to the artist before. We are integrating feedback from our early partners with a broader rollout of Discovery Mode expected later this year with the main goal of facilitating more artist to fan connections.

Sponsored Recommendations (i.e. Marquee) continued to gain traction during the second quarter as we expanded into more international markets including Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, and the UK. We also rolled out new functionality for artist teams using the self-serve platform to target specific audience segments (casual listeners, lapsed listeners, and recently interested listeners) with their campaigns, a functionality previously only available to customers purchasing through our sales team.

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow was €34 million in Q2, a €7 million increase Y/Y primarily due to an increase in net income adjusted for non-cash items, partially offset by higher working capital needs arising from select licensor payments (delayed from Q1), podcast-related payments, and higher ad-receivables. Capital expenditures increased €6 million Y/Y largely due to office build outs in LA, Berlin, and Miami.

At the end of Q2, we maintained a strong liquidity position with €3.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short term investments.

Q3 & Q4 2021 OUTLOOK

The following forward-looking statements reflect Spotify’s expectations as of July 28, 2021 and are subject to substantial uncertainty. The estimates below utilize the same methodology we’ve used in prior quarters with respect to our guidance and the potential range of outcomes. Given the extraordinary operating circumstances we currently face with respect to the impact of COVID-19, there is a greater likelihood of variances with respect to those ranges than typical quarters.

Q3 2021 Guidance:

  • Total MAUs: 377-382 million
  • Total Premium Subscribers:170-174 million
  • Total Revenue:€2.31-€2.51 billion
  • Gross Margin:24.4-26.4%
  • Operating Profit/Loss:€(80)-€0 million

Q4 2021 Guidance:

  • Total MAUs: 400-407 million
  • Total Premium Subscribers:177-181 million
  • Total Revenue:€2.48-€2.68 billion
  • Gross Margin:24.1-26.1%
  • Operating Profit/Loss:€(152)-€(72) million
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Yappie830
    2021-07-28
    Yappie830
    Bottom line is losses yet pre-market stock price shooting up…errrrr…. What’s the logic?? Still a supply demand play…
  • wwwwwl
    2021-07-28
    wwwwwl
    Likeee
  • ChickenWeng
    2021-07-28
    ChickenWeng
    Spotify to the moon!
  • Sfun
    2021-07-28
    Sfun
     like
  • babykangar00
    2021-07-28
    babykangar00
    Oh
  • beebeeyan
    2021-07-28
    beebeeyan
    ok wo
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