The demand for enhanced artificial intelligence computing infrastructure is positioning glass substrates as a significant future upgrade path for packaging substrates, leveraging their advantages in coefficient of thermal expansion, superior flatness, reduced warpage, finer through-glass via hole and routing, and higher interconnect density. Current client demand is urgent, with substantial investment across the supply chain, suggesting the pace of commercialization could exceed expectations. The estimated medium to long-term potential market size exceeds 60 billion yuan, highlighting promising development and investment prospects within the glass substrate industry chain. Analysts recommend focusing on companies benefiting from core process technologies and equipment.
AI Computing Infrastructure Upgrades Drive Clarification of Industry Trends Like Glass Substrates
Current demand for AI computing power remains in a phase of rapid growth. Enhancing computing infrastructure performance primarily relies on two avenues: stronger interconnects to provide clustered computing power and more powerful single-chip/unit performance. Focusing on the chip level, AI computing chips continue to evolve towards larger sizes, higher bandwidth, faster speeds, and lower power consumption, imposing stricter requirements on packaging substrates for line width/spacing, flatness, warpage control, and signal integrity. Traditional organic ABF substrates are gradually encountering bottlenecks with large-size packaging, including panelization, CTE matching, warpage control, drilling/routing precision, and signal interference/loss. In contrast, glass substrates, by upgrading the core layer of ABF substrates to glass, offer advantages such as a thermal expansion coefficient better matched to silicon chips, higher flatness, lower warpage, finer TGV holes/routing, and higher interconnect density. This positions them as a crucial upgrade direction for next-generation high-end computing chip packaging, such as for AI CPUs, GPUs, and ASICs.
Glass Substrates Accelerate Towards Commercialization with Potential 2030 Market of 60 Billion Yuan
Glass substrates represent an innovative upgrade based on the existing industrial foundation and product form of ABF packaging substrates. Focusing on the packaging substrate market, rapidly growing demand for computing and storage power is propelling the global packaging substrate market into a new growth cycle. According to Prismark data, the global packaging substrate market is projected to reach $14.9 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with the ABF substrate segment reaching $7.8 billion, up 22% year-on-year, marking it as the fastest-growing segment. Based on Prismark forecasts and an analysis of industry volume and pricing, the global ABF substrate market is estimated to grow to approximately 106.1 billion yuan by 2028 and potentially exceed 150 billion yuan by 2030. While previous market expectations generally pointed towards large-scale adoption of glass substrates around 2030, insights from BOE indicate that leading clients have urgent demand, with some expecting to enter a volume ramp-up phase as early as 2028, anticipating a glass substrate penetration rate reaching 30%. Assuming a penetration rate exceeding 30% by 2030 and considering the volume and price increases driven by widespread packaging substrate adoption—potentially lifting the total packaging substrate market beyond 200 billion yuan—the corresponding addressable market for glass substrates could surpass 60 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth potential.
Urgent End-Client Demand Spurs Accelerated Industry Layout, Commercialization May Exceed Expectations
The manufacturing of glass substrates is primarily divided into two major production stages: glass core processing and build-up (BU) layer processing. The BU layer processing currently largely utilizes existing organic ABF processing techniques, which are relatively mature. The core technical challenges lie in the glass core processing stages, such as TGV drilling, material surface treatment and bonding, and high-aspect-ratio copper plating, which are key focus areas for improving product yield. However, driven by the need for computing infrastructure upgrades, end-client demand is relatively urgent, and numerous major players across the supply chain have already invested and begun layouts. The combination of pressing client demand and concerted industry effort suggests that the large-scale commercialization of glass substrates could still outpace expectations, with pioneering leading companies positioned to benefit significantly.
Investment Outlook and Key Focus Areas
The outlook is positive for glass substrates as a major future direction for packaging substrate upgrades. With current urgent client demand and numerous major industry players entering the field, the commercialization process is expected to accelerate, presenting favorable development and investment opportunities for the glass substrate industry chain. Specific recommendations focus on two core areas: 1) Companies within the glass substrate manufacturing segment that possess relatively领先 technical capabilities, strategic client positioning, and product development. 2) Upstream materials and supporting equipment segments, which represent high-value, high-process-barrier industry links.
Notable Risk Factors to Consider
Key risks include macroeconomic fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, volatility in raw material prices, slower-than-expected volume ramp-up of new products from overseas computing leaders, weaker-than-anticipated growth in AI market demand, risks associated with technological change and product iteration, policy regulation and data privacy concerns, high customer concentration, and slower-than-expected commercialization of glass substrates.
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