From September 2 to 3, the 2026 Autumn Investment Conference of Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. was held in Shanghai. Themed "Divergence, Repricing, and Rebalancing," the event featured a main forum alongside 12 industry-specific breakout sessions, covering hot topics such as AI technology, consumer sectors, and energy to assess market opportunities and potential risks. Notably, the conference invited a national-level energy giant from Indonesia to engage with investors in dedicated exchanges.
During his keynote address, the chair of Huatai Securities' institutional business committee, Liang Hong, pointed out that the current market is experiencing a phase where macroeconomic volatility and technological leaps are occurring simultaneously. He noted that divergence forms the underlying backdrop of the market, which also serves as a source of opportunity. Amid global turbulence, the scarcity value of Chinese assets as a configuration choice has become increasingly evident. Over the next three to six months, he suggested the market will gradually move away from single-theme speculation and enter a phase of allocation rebalancing, with investment logic reverting to fundamentals. By using tools like crowding assessment and earnings validation, investors can distinguish between genuine growth and speculative noise. In terms of allocation strategy, he advised a balanced offense-defense approach—focusing on quality AI targets as the primary offensive line, while relying on high-dividend, stable cash-flow assets as defensive ballast. He also expressed continued optimism for supply-constrained strategic sectors such as power, resources, and agricultural products.
Huatai Securities' macro research team engaged in in-depth discussions on the economic outlook, asset allocation strategies, and market investment approaches. On the macro front, chief macroeconomist Yi Huan noted that central government fiscal spending is likely to accelerate, with second-half economic growth expected to remain broadly flat or see a modest uptick compared to the second quarter. However, as local government debt resolution efforts progress, the transmission effect of an active fiscal policy may be somewhat dampened. Regarding the Federal Reserve's rate decision in September, Yi Huan indicated significant uncertainty, estimating the probability of a rate hike at roughly 50%, slightly below what the market currently prices in. If the Fed opts to hold rates steady, this could increase risk premiums on long-end U.S. Treasury yields. Assets associated with stagflation trading—such as gold, the renminbi, the yen, and commodities—are not yet fully priced in, and from a hedging perspective, they offer configuration value as a buffer against the perceived erosion of the Fed's policy credibility.
Zhang Jiqiang, director of the research institute and chief fixed income analyst at Huatai Securities, analyzed the dynamics of rising U.S. bond yields and low domestic bond market levels, as well as the key asset allocation themes for the fourth quarter. He observed that the clarity of the era-defining investment theme has decreased compared to the first half of the year. The AI narrative is now entering a phase of earnings validation, while global order restructuring introduces multiple disruptions. Additionally, issues of dollar trust, coupled with a broad uptrend in global bond yields, necessitate attention to their impact on the denominator side of asset valuations. He expects the cycle of China's economic driving-force transformation to persist into next year. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Zhang predicts that the China-U.S. interest rate differential will remain at elevated levels, with domestic bond markets expected to experience mostly narrow fluctuations, showing limited correlation with overseas markets. In terms of asset allocation, he prioritizes the renminbi, A-shares, and commodities; any phased corrections in U.S. equities or gold would present tactical entry points; U.S. Treasuries still await a better inflection point, and sector allocation warrants moderate rebalancing.
Addressing the A-share volatility observed since May, He Kang, assistant to the research institute director and chief strategist alongside chief financial engineering analyst at Huatai Securities, suggests that the style rebalancing trend in A-shares could persist through the fourth quarter, primarily driven by changes in fund liability-side dynamics. The current allocation structure for tech stocks remains in a state of adjustment, with market capital preferences having visibly shifted toward stable assets. He recommends adopting a balanced approach to sectors that exhibit a "configuration gap" between earnings potential and current positioning—such as shipping, select chemicals, agriculture, and innovative drugs—while maintaining dividend-paying holdings as a foundation, awaiting the formation of a new market consensus.
With global liquidity tightening, investor attention is increasingly focused on the performance and opportunities in Hong Kong and overseas markets for the fourth quarter. Li Yujie, head of the Hong Kong and overseas strategy research team at Huatai Securities, notes that AI investment has witnessed rapid rotation in the second half of the year. The core driver of this rotation is the evolution of expected growth rates, as some industries have already crossed or are about to cross the inflection point of second-order derivatives. Sectors such as server hardware, semiconductor IP and equipment, data center infrastructure, and software and security still merit ongoing attention. For non-AI segments, Li Yujie believes U.S. equities can be positioned along sectors with demand growth that are less sensitive to oil price increases—including banks, capital goods, service consumption, pharmaceuticals, and retail. For Hong Kong stocks, focusing on fundamentals remains key. At present, investors can capitalize on pricing differential opportunities. In the medium term, banks, petrochemicals, and non-bank financials can serve as a core foundation, with tactical allocations into offensive plays like computer technology. Consumer manufacturing sectors such as food & beverage and autos warrant standard weightings.
The conference also brought together a distinguished roster of experts, listed company executives, and investors for in-depth dialogues. Keynote speakers at the main forum included Zhu Baoliang, former chief economist at the State Information Center; Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, director of the Ministry of Education's key research base—the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, and a member of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Foreign Policy Advisory Group; and Wang Yuquan, a global innovation and technology industry expert, tech investor, founding partner of Hiten Capital, and chief advisor for China at Frost & Sullivan. Together, they delivered insightful perspectives on pressing topics such as the macroeconomy, geopolitics, and the trajectory of the AI industry.
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