两个月前精准预测美股本轮反弹后，华尔街“大空头”开始看跌

华尔街见闻2022-12-06

摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson认为，当前这场“熊市反弹”结束在即，美股明年将创新低，他建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。两个月前，华尔街大空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson精准预测了美股的这一波反弹，但如今，他的观点却出现了转变。在过去两个月的时间里，标普500指数累计上涨了近20%，这和Wilson的预测基本一致。不过，Wilson在最新的研究...

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xiaochoochoo
2022-12-06
xiaochoochoo
goodg Luck

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简而言之，正如Wilson指出的那样，劳动力市场的表现并没有吓跑美债多头，随着经济增长放缓和美联储暂停加息活动，实际利率可能会在明年进一步下行。第三，几周前，Wilson强调了自10月开始反弹以来，美股出现了广泛的改善，而非集中在几只股票上。事实上，所有主要股指的幅度现在都远高于夏季反弹期间达到的水平，这是一个不容忽视的积极因素。Wilson依然强调，明年美股将创下新低。“熊市反弹”结束在即不过Wilson也警告称：对明年的收益前景持严重负面看法，即使我们避开了经济衰退/劳动力周期，争取这种潜在上行的风险回报也很低。此外，虽然标准普尔500指数上周确实突破了200日移动均线，但Wilson认为这是“完美的多头陷阱”，特别是考虑到自高峰以来形成的下行趋势的上方阻力。最后，在2019年和2021年牛市即将结束时，标普500指数从未达到基于广度的潜力，今天的情况与这两次类似。Wilson称：我们6周前所称的熊市反弹正在失去动力。虽然到年底可能会有一些最后的余力，但鉴于我们对明年远低于市场普遍预期的EPS的预测，情况已经实质性恶化。他认为目前“与一年前和8月份熊市反弹后的情况一样没有吸引力”。 从短期的角度来看，他表示，“4150点是这次反弹可以实现的上限”，如今，标普500指数“跌破上周低点3938点，与150天移动平均线重合，将提供一些确认熊市即将回归的趋势。”最后，Wilson预计通胀将在2023年快速下降。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9967140597,"gmtCreate":1670287558120,"gmtModify":1676538336780,"author":{"id":"4095548256553960","authorId":"4095548256553960","name":"xiaochoochoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa4c71aeb75832cfccf0bf892d1f6ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4095548256553960","idStr":"4095548256553960"},"htmlText":"goodg Luck","listText":"goodg Luck","text":"goodg 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