October 27: In the previous trading session on Monday (October 26), international gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, failing to extend losses and hit a new low. As senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan traveled to Iran for consultations aimed at easing tensions, international oil prices pulled back. Weakening rate hike expectations provided some support for gold prices. This also allowed the close to form a somewhat bullish engulfing pattern signaling a halt in the decline, but if prices cannot rebound and close above $4,120, there remains a risk of another pullback toward the $3,880 or $3,800 levels.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened higher in the Asian session at $3,998.82 per ounce, first filling the gap to record an intraday low of $3,978.04, then rebounded and fluctuated above the $4,000 mark. Extending into the US session, prices first fell then rose in a V-shaped recovery, reaching an intraday high of $4,029.57, before encountering resistance and pulling back to close at $4,016.88. The daily range was $51.53, and relative to Friday's close of $3,993.83, gold gained $23.05, or 0.58%.
Looking ahead to today, Tuesday (October 27): International gold opened slightly higher in early Asian trading before pulling back, pressured by the late-session retreat from yesterday and by the stabilization and strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields. However, in the short term, gold lacks further bearish pressure, and prices may trade in a consolidating manner with limited upside and downside momentum.
During the day, attention will be on a series of US data releases including September durable goods orders, August FHFA house price index, August S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city unadjusted home price index, September new home sales, October Conference Board consumer confidence index, and October Richmond Fed manufacturing index. The market generally expects the earlier data releases to be bearish and the later ones to be bullish for gold, suggesting prices may dip first and then rebound in the evening session. Based on current price action, however, the probability of a higher close today remains relatively high.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold has fallen to near the June-July support zone. Although there is demand for a stabilizing rebound, the secondary indicators maintain a strong bearish signal, still suggesting expectations that prices could break below support and test the 30-month moving average support near $3,600. At the same time, this could pave the way for a sustained correction above $3,300 over the next 1-2 years, followed by a renewed rally to new highs near $7,500 in 2029-30. On the upside, resistance is focused on whether prices can return above the 5-10 month moving averages.
On the weekly chart, gold has fallen into the ascending trend channel that began in 2024. Although it currently has support from the previous rebound and the ZZ indicator shows a bottoming rebound demand, if prices cannot return above the trend channel at $4,120, there remains an expectation of a lower low, with the channel bottom support near $3,830 potentially fueling a bullish rally back above $4,100.
On the daily chart, after recent rebounds continued to face resistance from the Bollinger Band middle rail, bearish momentum intensified, breaking below the recent consolidation bottom and the ascending trendline support in one move. Currently outside the lower Bollinger Band, prices are stabilizing and rebounding in a corrective move, but if the rebound cannot return above and hold the trendline at $4,120, there remains a risk of falling back toward the $3,880 or $3,800 levels.
Below are preliminary reference levels for intraday long and short positions; actual entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications:
Gold: Support below at $4,000 or $3,985; resistance above at $4,035 or $4,065.
Silver: Support below at $53.60 or $53.25; resistance above at $54.60 or $55.45.
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