Quarterly Index Review Approaching: How Passive Capital and Mainland Connect Opportunities Are Shaping Hong Kong Market Dynamics

Stock News09-04 09:30

According to the quarterly review results announced by Hang Seng Indexes Company on August 21, covering the period ending June 30, 2026, the Hang Seng Index will expand from 93 to 95 constituents, with Huahong Hongli (01347) and Weichai Power (02338) being newly added. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain its 50 constituents, while the Hang Seng Tech Index will welcome Tianshu Zhixin (09903) as a new addition, keeping the total at 30 stocks. All these changes will take effect from September 7, 2026.

Particular attention is being paid to the adjustment of the Hang Seng Composite Index, as inclusions often attract passive capital inflows and may open the gateway to the Stock Connect program, thereby enhancing liquidity and market visibility. It is worth noting that changes to the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index will be implemented after market close on Friday, September 11, 2026, and will take effect from Monday, September 14, 2026.

The most significant change in the Hang Seng Index series quarterly review is within the Hang Seng Composite Index, where the number of constituents is set to surge from 534 to 580. This includes the addition of 61 stocks such as Qunhe Tech (00068) and Tongguan Gold (00340), while 15 stocks will be removed. Among the inclusions, the semiconductor and AI sector has expanded substantially, with companies like AXERA, HaiGuang XinZheng, and Qunhe Tech entering the Composite Index in rapid succession. For the first time, robotics stocks are being included in batches, with embodied intelligence players such as Huayan Robotics and Ledong Robotics joining the index. Simultaneously, large A+H shares including Dongfang Electric, GigaDevice, and Montage Technology, which are already in the Stock Connect program, are also being added to the Composite Index.

The primary benefit of being included in the Hang Seng Composite Index is attracting substantial passive capital inflows, which is the most direct and quantifiable advantage of index inclusion. Numerous exchange-traded funds and index funds worldwide track the Hang Seng Index series and are required to purchase newly added stocks at near-market prices to replicate index performance. As of the end of June 2026, the total assets under management of products passively tracking the Hang Seng Index series stood at approximately USD 106.6 billion.

Goldman Sachs has issued a research report indicating that following the Hang Seng Indexes Company's quarterly review results, it estimates the index adjustment will generate total two-way passive fund flows exceeding USD 7.2 billion. At the sector level, technology hardware and semiconductors, software and services, and internet and media are expected to see the largest passive inflows, with amounts of approximately USD 870 million, USD 190 million to USD 230 million, and USD 190 million to USD 230 million, respectively.

Additionally, the Hang Seng Composite Index serves as the sample universe for Stock Connect investments, meaning its changes will directly impact the investable scope of Southbound trading. Once a stock is included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges will correspondingly adjust the eligible targets for Stock Connect, which directly affects the investable range—this is considered the most significant secondary effect of the adjustment. According to the Stock Connect adjustment rules, being included in the Hang Seng Composite Index is a crucial foundation for becoming a tradeable target. Once a stock officially becomes a Stock Connect target, it gains direct access to the vast mainland investor base, opening up the channel for Southbound capital allocation.

Inflows from Southbound capital are expected to boost stock liquidity, as Stock Connect participation significantly enhances trading volume and market pricing efficiency. Historical data shows that after inclusion in Stock Connect, northbound holdings as a percentage of total shares rise by an average of 9 percentage points within three months.

CICC previously estimated that, considering the Hang Seng Composite Index constituent requirements alongside the additional criteria for Stock Connect inclusion—such as eligibility for small-cap stocks with a market capitalization above HKD 5 billion, exclusion of stocks subject to risk warnings by exchanges, suspended listings, or those in delisting review periods, and the additional requirements for weighted voting rights companies including a minimum listing period of 6 months and 20 days along with market cap and trading conditions—approximately 49 stocks are likely to meet the standards for Stock Connect inclusion. The firm emphasized that during this period, similar to MSCI index adjustments, some active funds may still engage in arbitrage operations based on the announced results. However, passive funds, aiming to minimize tracking errors, are expected to rebalance on the last trading day before the changes take effect, which would be September 4. On that day, trading volumes in related stocks could see abnormal surges far greater than usual, particularly during the closing session.

Among the related concept stocks, SEER TECH (06106) has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index. As a scarce "robot brain" target in the Hong Kong market, its inclusion is viewed by the market as a significant signal of broader recognition for the intelligent robotics industry in the capital markets. Public information indicates that SEER TECH is an embodied intelligence platform company centered on the "robot brain," with core capabilities leaning toward software and algorithms. In the first half of 2026, SEER TECH achieved revenue of RMB 264 million, a year-on-year increase of 67.5%. "Robot brain" shipments exceeded 8,000 units, growing over 80% year-on-year, while new orders surpassed RMB 467 million, up more than 60% from the previous year.

DIAGENS-B (02526) has achieved a dual inclusion, being added to both the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index constituents. Founded in 2016, the company is a technology enterprise that leverages AI technology to revolutionize medical diagnostics, ranking first in its industry. In the first half of 2026, the company reported total operating revenue of RMB 109 million, up 21.0% year-on-year, with gross margin maintained at a high level of 74.1%. Model service revenue reached RMB 94.5 million, surging 101.1% year-on-year, accounting for 86.9% of total revenue and becoming the core engine driving growth.

GPIXEL (03277) has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index. The company released its interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, reporting revenue of RMB 641 million, an increase of 78.36% year-on-year. Profit attributable to owners of the parent company reached RMB 250 million, up 197.16% year-on-year, with earnings per share of RMB 0.63. During the reporting period, revenue from area array sensors and line array sensors increased, primarily due to a rise in sales volume from 264,000 units in the same period last year to 548,000 units in the current period. This volume growth was driven by robust demand from downstream industrial imaging applications such as high-end industrial inspection, lithium battery inspection, and printed circuit board inspection.

SIGENERGY (06656) has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index. The company's interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, show revenue of RMB 9.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 261.2%, and profit for the period of RMB 2.43 billion, up 201% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit under non-IFRS measures reached RMB 2.49 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 135.8%. During the reporting period, SIGENERGY's optical storage series products continued to maintain rapid growth, achieving revenue of RMB 9.30 billion, accounting for 94.2% of total revenue, up 267.1% year-on-year, and serving as the core driver of business growth.

Tongguan Gold (00340) has been included as a constituent of the Hang Seng Composite Index. The company released its results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with turnover of HKD 1.575 billion, an increase of 53.1% year-on-year, and profit attributable to owners of the company of HKD 523 million, up 52.5% year-on-year. Basic earnings per share stood at HKD 9.85 cents. The increase in turnover was primarily attributed to the rise in average selling prices of mineral gold.

AXERA (00600), a globally leading supplier of AI inference system-on-chip solutions, has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index. Public information shows that AXERA Semiconductor Co., Ltd. was established in May 2019 and is a world-leading provider of AI inference system-on-chip solutions, dedicated to building advanced AI computing infrastructure and promoting the popularization of artificial intelligence technology. According to LiveReport's big data predictions, 53 stocks, including AXERA, are expected to officially enter the Stock Connect program starting from September 7, 2026.

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