On Friday, the three major stock indices closed in negative territory. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.81%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 2.11%. The STAR 50 Index plunged by 5.04%. The combined turnover for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 3,319.032 billion yuan, with over 3,800 stocks declining. Sectors such as baijiu (distilled spirits), electric power, and coal mining and processing led the gains, while semiconductors, new metal materials, and military electronics were among the biggest decliners.
In today's morning briefings, East Money highlighted the focus on market rebalancing following consensus-driven trading. CITIC Securities discussed Huawei's proposed "Tau Law" and its implications for new directions in semiconductor process development. Guosheng Securities pointed to expectations for incremental policies, advising close attention to the construction of the "Six Networks."
East Money: Focus on Rebalancing After Consensus Trading Recent trading in the silicon-based upstream sector has reached historically high levels of crowding, leading to some market volatility and a shift in structural styles, with sectors like consumption showing resilience. A comprehensive assessment suggests that conditions for a full bull-to-bear market transition are not currently present. However, the year's trajectory may involve a degree of oscillation, with the overall pattern expected to be volatile yet moderately strong. Current market characteristics bear some resemblance to early 2021. The crowded trading in the silicon-based upstream sector may pause in the short term. Looking ahead, focus can be directed towards leading companies within the AI industry that are not overvalued and are poised to exceed expectations in their mid-year reports. Additionally, attention can be paid to undervalued, high-quality assets within the carbon-based economy where fundamentals are expected to improve. Key sectors to watch include optical modules/fiber optics, domestic AI chips/semiconductor equipment, new energy, coal, new consumption, innovative drugs, internet, finance, robotics, and commercial aerospace.
CITIC Securities: Huawei's "Tau Law" and New Directions in Semiconductor Process Development Huawei has proposed the "Tau (τ) Law," which uses a "time scaling" principle to guide the development direction of the semiconductor industry. This is expected to bring profound changes across four levels: transistors, circuits, chips, and systems. By leveraging domestic technological capabilities in areas such as 3D integration, advanced packaging, co-optimization of chip design and manufacturing, and optical communication, China's semiconductor industry can potentially accelerate its development by optimizing and iterating system topology to bridge short-term gaps in process nodes, thus creating an opportunity for accelerated growth on a new path.
Guosheng Securities: Incremental Policies Anticipated; Monitor "Six Networks" Construction Overall, recent policy focus over the past half-month has centered on preparing incremental policy reserves, with multiple departments disclosing subsequent policy directions. There are six main focal points, including an important article titled "Proactively Planning and Developing Future Industries" published in *Qiushi* magazine, briefings from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and forums with private enterprises, and intensive research by central authorities. It is reiterated that high oil prices have persisted for three months, and their impact on the economy, especially on downstream industries, is gradually materializing. China's immediate priority is to "fully utilize and implement" established policies. Incremental policies are anticipated, but their pacing will be adaptive. In the near term, close attention should be paid to three aspects: 1) The reserve of incremental policies. Details from NDRC briefings and forums suggest that policies related to the "Six Networks," "AI+," computing power networks, and energy resource reserves may be accelerated. 2) Developments in the Iran situation and oil price trends. 3) The state of economic fundamentals, particularly in real estate and exports.
Comments