CMSC has released a research report stating that the recent comprehensive surge in electronics prices is not merely a simple cyclical fluctuation. Instead, it represents a structural transformation driven by the dual forces of the explosive growth of the AI industry and rising upstream raw material costs. Looking ahead, AI demand is expected to maintain rapid growth. Coupled with long-term constraints on metal supply against a backdrop of a weak US dollar and resource nationalism, metal prices are anticipated to continue rising. The wave of price increases in the electronics sector is likely to persist until the end of this year or even into the beginning of next year. The report recommends focusing on semiconductors, components, and non-ferrous metals, which are experiencing both volume-price synergy and profit improvement. The main views of CMSC are as follows:
Benefiting from production cuts by original manufacturers and improved end-demand, memory prices reached an inflection point in Q2 2025. As major manufacturers shift capacity towards high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips continues to shrink. The industry's supply-demand gap is persistently widening, leading to continuous price increases. By the end of 2025, with the costs of industrial metals and other raw materials also rising rapidly, price hikes began to gradually spread from memory chips to the entire industry chain, including passive components, packaging and testing, and foundry services, thereby increasing cost pressures for terminal consumer electronics. Since the beginning of 2026, leading manufacturers have intensively issued price increase notices, indicating an initial trend of comprehensive price increases across the electronics industry.
In the information technology sector this week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the Taiwan Semiconductor Index, and the DXI Index all moved higher. Prices for DRAM and NAND memory also increased. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate for Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipment value in December narrowed. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in optical cable production in December also narrowed. Panel prices rose in January, while the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate for NB LCD shipments in December expanded.
In midstream manufacturing, prices for some cathode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products increased this week, while prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC fell. The photovoltaic price index rose, with silicon material prices increasing within the chain, while silicon wafer and module prices remained flat. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in production of specialized packaging equipment in December narrowed, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth in production of metal forming machine tools also narrowed. The four-week rolling average year-on-year growth rates for weekly port cargo throughput and container throughput expanded this week. The CCFI fell, while the CCBFI, BDTI, and BDI rose.
Regarding consumer demand, the price of fresh milk increased, while the composite price of sugar decreased. Pork prices rose, the wholesale price for piglets remained flat compared to last week, and the average live hog price declined. In terms of pig breeding profits, profits for both self-breeding and purchased-piglet farming operations increased. In the broiler chicken sector, the price of day-old chicks declined. The vegetable price index fell, corn futures settlement prices rose, and cotton futures settlement prices declined. The ten-day average of box office revenue increased, while the ten-day average movie ticket price decreased sequentially. The four-week rolling average year-on-year decline in retail sales for air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and color TVs narrowed. The Chinese herbal medicine price index declined.
In the resources sector, the ten-day average trading volume of construction steel declined. The price of steel billet remained flat from the previous week, while rebar prices fell. In coal, the price of Qinhuangdao premium blended thermal coal declined, while the ex-stock price of Shanxi primary coking coal at Jingtang Port rose. Futures settlement prices for both coke and coking coal declined. Regarding inventories, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased, coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port decreased, and coke inventory at Tianjin Port increased. The national cement price index declined. Brent international crude oil prices rose. The weekly环比 China Chemical Product Price Index increased, with chemical product prices generally rising, led by gains in fuel oil and asphalt. Prices for industrial metals were mostly higher this week, with copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel prices rising, while lead prices fell; inventory levels mostly increased. Spot and futures prices for gold and silver rose.
In finance and real estate, there was a net injection into the money market. The A-share turnover rate and daily trading volume declined. The land transaction premium rate increased, while the transaction area of commercial housing decreased. The nationwide volume of second-hand homes listed for sale declined, while the listing price index increased.
In utilities, the ex-factory price of natural gas rose. The 12-week rolling average year-on-year decline in daily power generation at key national power plants narrowed. Risk提示: Industry support may fall short of expectations; macroeconomic fluctuations.
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