Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. (01772) saw its shares rise more than 4% during afternoon trading. At the time of writing, the stock was up 4.3%, trading at HK$60.7 with a turnover of HK$517 million. The increase follows a jump of over 8% in the main lithium carbonate futures contract during the day, with prices currently at 149,000 yuan per ton. UBS believes the market has entered a third super-cycle for lithium prices, with persistent supply-demand gaps expected to support prices significantly above market consensus. The bank has raised its 2026 spodumene price forecast by 74% to $3,131 per ton and set its lithium carbonate price projection at $26,000 per ton. This adjustment is based on expectations that electric vehicles will achieve "triple parity" and energy storage demand will surge, with global lithium demand forecast to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030. Notably, Ganfeng Lithium recently issued an earnings forecast, anticipating a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year. Soochow Securities released a research report stating that lithium salt shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 were flat quarter-on-quarter, with price increases contributing to earnings flexibility. Looking ahead to 2026, the company's lithium salt shipments are projected to reach 210,000 tons, a 25% year-on-year increase, with self-supplied resources estimated at 130,000 to 140,000 tons. If lithium carbonate prices remain at 150,000 yuan per ton, this could contribute over 9 billion yuan in profit.
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