Apple Leads Pre-Market Gains on Strong Earnings Amid U.S.-Iran Stalemate; Oil Rises, Gold Falls, Yen Strengthens

Market dynamics are diverging as strong corporate earnings, continued yen intervention effects, and rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions interweave, causing a pause after April’s strong rally. On Friday, May 1, pre-market U.S. stocks and Asian-European markets showed clear splits. Apple led gains on robust earnings, while memory chip stocks retreated despite impressive results as investors took profits. The yen extended its rise following Japanese government intervention; gold came under pressure; and oil held near weekly highs amid ongoing geopolitical strains.

The U.S.-Iran negotiation deadlock persists. However, Florian Ielpo, an analyst at Lombard Odier Asset Management, noted, “Equities are no longer reacting mechanically to rising oil prices because earnings momentum is strong enough to absorb higher yields and geopolitical risks.” He added that U.S. corporate profit growth “is sufficient to offset potential negative impacts of rising oil prices on corporate costs and demand.”

Key asset movements are as follows:

Yen: Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 2024, pushing the yen up 0.7% against the dollar to 155.5 at one point. Traders warned that without further intervention, the rebound may not last.

U.S. tech stock divergence: Apple rose about 3% pre-market, with iPhone revenue hitting a record high for the period and guidance exceeding expectations. SanDisk fell around 5% and Western Digital dropped about 7%, as strong earnings were already priced in, triggering profit-taking.

Gold: Spot gold fell 1.0% intraday to around $4,575 per ounce.

Oil: Brent crude rose above $111 per barrel, with WTI nearing $106, up about 12% for the week, as former President Trump insisted on a maritime blockade of Iranian ports.

Apple bucked the trend, while memory stocks saw profit-taking. Apple climbed about 3% pre-market after reporting double-digit growth in China last quarter, record iPhone revenue for the period, and better-than-expected guidance. This lifted market sentiment, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edging higher after both indices closed at record highs on Thursday.

In contrast, SanDisk and Western Digital fell sharply despite strong earnings. SanDisk dropped about 6% pre-market, and Western Digital declined about 7%. Both companies reported results well above expectations: SanDisk’s revenue surged 97% year-over-year, with data center business tripling in a single quarter; Western Digital’s revenue rose 45% annually, and both issued strong guidance. Analysts noted the issue was not the earnings themselves, but that valuations had run far ahead—Western Digital had gained about 900% over the past year, while SanDisk had surged roughly 3,300% since its IPO. Against this backdrop, strong results were fully priced in, and guidance lacked enough surprise, prompting profit-taking. This logic is not unusual: when a stock’s gains have already priced in future expectations, even strong earnings can trigger a “sell the news” reaction.

Yen: Intervention effects continued, but sustainability is in doubt. On Thursday, the Japanese government bought yen and sold dollars, sending the currency up about 3% in a single day. The yen extended gains on Friday, briefly jumping 0.7% against the dollar to 155.5, surpassing the high reached after Thursday’s intervention. This marked Japan’s first FX market intervention since 2024. Although Japan’s top currency official declined to confirm publicly, Bloomberg reported that authorities had indeed acted and U.S. economic officials were notified beforehand. Markets remained cautious about further moves. Traders suggested that without additional intervention, the rebound could fade, though the likelihood of Japan stepping in again is rising. Masato Kanda, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, issued a veiled warning ahead of the Golden Week holiday (May 4–6): “I won’t comment on future developments, but I’ll note that we are at the start of a long holiday. We maintain extremely close communication with the U.S., and I believe we share common views on the situation and actions.” Kanda also extended the warning to energy markets, stating, “Generally, we are always prepared to act regarding crude oil futures trading.”

Gold faced pressure, while oil rose 12% for the week. Spot gold fell 1.0% intraday to around $4,575 per ounce, after previously trading near $4,620. Oil remained strong, with Brent July futures above $111 per barrel and WTI near $106, up about 12% weekly. The key driver was geopolitical tension: former President Trump’s insistence on a maritime blockade of Iranian ports raised concerns that the Strait of Hormuz may not reopen soon. Michael Ball, a Bloomberg macro strategist, noted that the oil price shock is clearly visible in FX and bond markets, but U.S. risk assets appear disconnected. He suggested whether this divergence can persist is becoming one of the market’s most important debates.

Bonds and the dollar: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose about 2 basis points to 4.39%, giving back some of the previous session’s gains. The dollar index was largely flat, after posting its worst monthly performance since June.