U.S. Treasury yields were largely unchanged on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, while oil prices reached a four-year high overnight.
The key benchmark—the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield—stood at 4.410%.
The 2-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks short-term Fed rate expectations, fell by more than 1 basis point to 3.916%. The longer-end 30-year yield remained flat.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields move inversely to prices.
On Wednesday, the Fed voted to keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged within the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, a result that aligned with investor expectations ahead of the meeting.
However, the meeting also revealed the highest level of dissent since 1992—three officials voted against "including an easing bias in this statement." This wording suggests the U.S. central bank's next move is likely to be a rate cut.
The extent of the disagreement reflects anxiety among some Fed officials regarding the inflation outlook.
Brent crude oil touched a four-year high on Thursday after reports indicated that U.S. military officials would brief President Trump on potential actions against Iran, reigniting concerns about a possible armed conflict.
Axios, citing two informed sources, reported that U.S. Central Command would present Trump with plans for further military action against Iran.
According to reports, Trump had previously rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling that the maritime blockade would remain in place until a broader nuclear agreement is reached.
The international benchmark Brent crude June futures briefly surpassed $126 per barrel before paring gains to $121.84, up 3.4%. As of 3:40 a.m. ET, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $107.98 per barrel.
Investors will focus on a series of economic data releases scheduled for Thursday, including the initial estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Also due for release is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Chair Powell had previously indicated that the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was expected to come in at 3.2% for March. Weekly initial jobless claims are also set to be published.
In Europe, central bank actions will take center stage later in the day, with both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England scheduled to announce their latest monetary policy decisions.
Preliminary data released earlier in the day showed that eurozone inflation surged quarter-on-quarter from 2.6% to 3% in the first three months of the year, while GDP growth slowed from 0.3% to 0.1%.
Neither the ECB nor the BoE is expected to change interest rates, but their forward guidance will be closely watched given the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
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