On Monday, September 21st, the market opened with gold maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern. On the technical front, the Bollinger Band lower band on the 1-hour chart, along with the SAR parabolic indicator, has completed a top-to-bottom conversion, releasing a short-term bearish signal. This provides directional guidance for intraday operations and sets the stage for the next phase of trend selection. The key intraday pivot point to watch is the pullback low of 4342 from Friday night's session. This level serves as the critical battleground between bulls and bears, and is the direct observation point for a potential trend reversal today. If gold prices break below 4342 with a daily close beneath it, the short-term downtrend could extend, with support levels to watch at 4335 and 4322 respectively. Further down, the weekly Bollinger Band midline at 4303 and the daily MA60 moving average at 4300 form the initial bull-bear dividing line for the week. This zone features dense and robust support, and if it is decisively breached, the market could shift from consolidation to weak downside movement.
Conversely, if gold prices fail to establish a downward break, the strategy remains to trade within the 4342鈥?399 range mentioned earlier, selling at highs and buying at lows. Strict stop-losses and proper position sizing are essential within this range. At the macro level, whether the US dollar index can hold the key 100 round number is equally crucial. Today, the dollar's key support lies in the 100.17鈥?00 area. As long as the dollar index does not effectively fall below 100, the dollar's strong bias will persist, continuing to pressure gold's upside. Conversely, if the dollar loses the 100 level, be wary of the short-term support this could provide to gold prices. Therefore, before the dollar breaks below 100, selling gold at higher levels is a more prudent approach, with a focus on bearish positions and avoiding chasing rallies.
Gold trading strategy: Current spot price is around 4354. 1. Buy at 4345 pullback, add to long at 4335, stop-loss at 4330, targeting 4365鈥?385. 2. Sell in the 4390鈥?397 zone, stop-loss at 4402, targeting 4370鈥?342鈥?322. 3. Buy in the 4305鈥?300 area, stop-loss at 4295, targeting 4330鈥?360.
Last Friday's oil market performance perfectly validated previous analysis. Prices pulled back as expected upon reaching the key resistance zone of 102.3鈥?02.8, with short positions entering precisely as anticipated. Oil then declined steadily, with lows currently touching the 97.6 level, successfully capturing a substantial wave of short-term profit, aligning with the overall expectation. From the current technical perspective, there are two key resistance levels to monitor: the psychological 100 round number and the early-session rebound high near 101.1. Unless prices effectively break above today's high, the short-term market remains under bearish control, favoring a bearish bias in operations. If prices break above 101.1, attention should turn to the resistance from the 102.3鈥?02.8 zone, a historically high-volume area expected to provide significant resistance.
On the support side, the first key level to watch is 95, which has shifted from resistance to support. Additionally, the daily Bollinger Band midline near 94.1 will offer substantial support. The 95鈥?4.1 range can be viewed as a phase-bottom area for this uptrend cycle. If prices initially pull back into this zone, it is likely to attract buying interest, presenting an opportunity to establish bullish positions. In summary, today's operational strategy remains short-biased, focusing on the resistance levels at 100 and 101.1. Sell on rebounds in these areas, while patiently waiting for a pullback to the 95鈥?4.1 support range before considering long positions. Maintain an overall range-bound approach, adhere to strict risk management, and wait for clear signals at key levels before acting.
Oil trading strategy: Current spot price is around 98.1. 1. Sell at 99.7 rebound, add to short at 100.6, stop-loss at 101.2, targeting 97.5鈥?5.5. 2. Buy at 95, add to long at 94.2, stop-loss at 93.5, targeting 97.1鈥?8.9.
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