JPMorgan Chase forecasts that gold prices could surge to a historic high of over $4000 per ounce in 2025, driven by tariff policy uncertainties and robust demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks. New demand from Chinese insurance giants and the cryptocurrency sector may further propel the precious metal beyond $5055 per ounce by late 2026.
Following a year of explosive demand and unprecedented price rallies, JPMorgan’s 2026 outlook suggests the gold bull market will persist, supported by resilient key drivers.
"While this gold rally hasn’t been linear—and won’t be—we believe the trends pushing prices higher remain intact," said Natasha Kaneva, Global Head of Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan. "The long-term diversification into gold by official reserves and investors still has room to grow. We expect demand to drive prices toward $5000 per ounce by end-2026."
Traditional catalysts like a weaker US dollar, lower US interest rates, and economic and geopolitical uncertainties have fueled the rally. The bank notes gold’s dual role as a hedge against currency depreciation and a zero-yield alternative to Treasuries and money-market funds.
"In Q3 2025, combined investor and central bank gold demand reached ~980 tons, over 50% above the prior four-quarter average," said Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at JPMorgan.
At an average Q3 2025 price of $3458/oz, 950 tons equated to ~$109 billion in quarterly demand inflows—~90% higher than the four-quarter average.
JPMorgan’s price projections assume sustained strong investor demand and steady central bank buying, with 2026 central bank purchases averaging 585 tons quarterly.
"We derive our gold price forecast based on the relationship between quarterly tonnage demand and price," Shearer explained. "For 2026, we project average quarterly demand of ~585 tons, including ~190 tons from central banks, 330 tons from bars/coins, and 275 tons from ETFs/futures concentrated next year."
This model explains ~70% of gold’s quarterly price moves, implying ~350 tons of net quarterly demand is needed for price gains. "Every 100 tons above 350 tons translates to a ~2% quarterly price rise."
Central banks are expected to remain a key demand pillar.
"Even after three straight years of 1000+ ton purchases, structural trends suggest further growth in 2026," JPMorgan noted, projecting 755 tons in central bank buying—below recent peaks but well above the 400–500-ton pre-2022 average.
"This decline reflects mechanical adjustments, not a structural shift," the report stated. "At $4000+/oz, central banks need fewer tons to achieve target reserve allocations."
IMF data shows global central bank gold holdings hit ~36,200 tons by end-2024 (~20% of reserves, up from 15% in 2023).
"If sub-10% gold-holding central banks raise allocations to 10% at $4000/oz, it would require ~$335 billion inflows (~2600 tons). Even at $5000/oz, this would demand ~$194 billion (~1200 tons)," the report added.
Investor demand is also poised to grow.
"Futures positioning remains net long, reflecting bullish sentiment," JPMorgan analysts wrote. "While futures flow fastest, they’re a small part of broader holdings (ETFs, physical bars/coins)."
The bank predicts 2026 ETF inflows of ~250 tons, with bar/coin demand exceeding 1200 tons again. Gold’s share of investor AUM rose to 2.8% by September but could reach 4–5% in coming years.
JPMorgan sees potential new demand from Chinese insurers and crypto investors.
"Though timing catalysts is hard, we’re confident demand can push gold to $5000/oz by 2026," Shearer said. "Our estimates may even be conservative—a 0.5% shift from offshore USD assets to gold could lift prices to $6000/oz."
With inelastic mine supply and strong demand, risks skew toward faster price appreciation. JPMorgan forecasts gold averaging $5055/oz in Q4 2026, rising to $5400/oz by end-2027.
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