40倍PE到底贵不贵？段永平谈茅台估值

ETF进化论2022-05-22

两个月前，贵州茅台股价在1600元左右。从历史高点2608元下来，浓眉大眼的贵州茅台回撤了近40%。茅台的忠实粉丝——段永平，说最近又买了点贵州茅台，并称和大家看到的任何消息无关，甚至和股价也没有关系，只是正好有点多余现金。总觉得从看10年的角度，拿着茅台比拿着现金存在银行要好一点点。1、段永平谈茅台估值段永平何许人也？实业家出身，曾以创立小霸王和步步高两个知名品牌，四大门徒：OPPO创始人陈明永...

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幸福满天飞
2022-05-23
幸福满天飞
[微笑]
soo hoo
2022-05-23
soo hoo
up
soo hoo
2022-05-23
soo hoo
ok
大雁塔
2022-05-23
大雁塔
貴州茅臺，伊利股份，長期關注，長期持有。
xiaochoochoo
2022-05-22
xiaochoochoo
...
Mingzu
2022-05-22
Mingzu
[微笑]

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Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF普遍下跌较多。酒ETF（512690）跟踪的是中证酒指数（399987），过去17年中证酒指数年化收益高达25.33%。酒ETF（512690）过去也是一直走势很强的ETF，其重仓股是贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒，今年最高回撤超30%。（本文内容均为客观数据和信息罗列，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议）2020年12月30日上市的食品饮料ETF（515170）也在下跌，重仓股贵州茅台、五粮液、伊利股份、泸州老窖、山西汾酒和海天味业，前十大权重白酒占据了半壁江山，最高回撤了35%。众所周知，食品饮料历来是牛股诞生地，过去20年食品饮料指数表现亮眼。然而从全球市场大牛股诞生地——食品饮料行业来看，牛股并不仅仅是酒，还有很多大的食品企业。从全球白酒烈酒上市公司市值来看，中国白酒企业市值较大，目前中国的酒类是世界第一。其他诸如食品等细分行业，均未出现世界巨头。而中国是全球最大消费市场之一，拥有14亿人口，除了白酒行业，其他跟老百姓衣食住行相关的细分，今后出现世界级企业概率自然也不小。这也很考验各大机构对指数基金的权重编排，如果能相对均衡去配比，在中国庞大的消费市场里，相信在这个长牛赛道的ETF还是值得期待。相比较酒ETF、食品饮料ETF，最近汽车ETF比较强势，原因是受益于新一轮汽车下乡的刺激。3、消费券促消费前不久，在清华五道口首席经济学家论坛上，著名经济学家李迅雷提出：1.促消费的效果要比基建投资更好。发放消费券能更直接地提高居民的消费能力和消费欲望。2.国内居民可支配收入对GDP的贡献远低于全球平均水平。（中国为2021年数据，泰国为2019年数据，其他国家均为2020年数据）与此同时，国内政府部门的杠杆率水平，大概只有美国的三分之一，日本的六分之一。因此，通过增加财政支出的方式来发消费券，应该具有足够的安全边际。发放消费券可以在短期内改善居民部门的收入状况，尤其在疫情期间。让群众能消费、敢消费、愿消费。倘若用消费券来刺激消费，市场对消费行业的悲观情绪能否改观？消费行业还能迎来第二春吗？","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9028225579,"gmtCreate":1653254126291,"gmtModify":1676535244761,"author":{"id":"4099482010818000","authorId":"4099482010818000","name":"幸福满天飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd42d6a7d68497b6805872385c9f897e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099482010818000","authorIdStr":"4099482010818000"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028225579","repostId":1116468133,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9028267731,"gmtCreate":1653237257423,"gmtModify":1676535244444,"author":{"id":"3586504940954450","authorId":"3586504940954450","name":"soo 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