Forget Cloud, YouTube Will Lead Alphabet To Exponential Growth

seekingalpha2021-07-26

Summary Google continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment. The YouTube platform is poised to keep growing and further increase user monetization. Our forecast...

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Comments

Memyself
2021-07-26
Memyself
Nice
JohnWL
2021-07-26
JohnWL
Accelerated
joshua0111
2021-07-26
joshua0111
Nice
Alice1910
2021-07-26
Alice1910
Nice
Kelvin_Qiu
2021-07-26
Kelvin_Qiu
Help like pls thx
- joshua0111:
  nice
- vianau:
  Ok
Dave Fu
2021-07-26
Dave Fu
Nice

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Cloud, YouTube Will Lead Alphabet To Exponential Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 15:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441312-forget-cloud-youtube-will-lead-alphabet-to-exponential-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGoogle continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.\nThe YouTube platform is poised to keep growing and further increase user monetization.\nOur forecast...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441312-forget-cloud-youtube-will-lead-alphabet-to-exponential-growth\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GOOG","symbol_name":"谷歌","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441312-forget-cloud-youtube-will-lead-alphabet-to-exponential-growth","article_id":"1116690230","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116690230","pubTimestamp":1627285542,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nGoogle continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"translate_title":"忘了云，YouTube将引领谷歌A指数级增长","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nGoogle continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.\nThe YouTube platform is poised to keep growing and further increase user monetization.\nOur forecast suggests Google could bring in over $1 trillion in revenues by 2030 with a $14,000 share price.\n\nLauren Nicole/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nAlphabet Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL) has been one of the best-performing companies and stocks of the last decade. The company makes most of its revenue from search ads, but it has faster growing and more promising segments, such as “YouTube'' and “Cloud”. While most investors focus on the potential of Cloud, I believe that revenue from YouTube ads and YouTube subscriptions is the key factor that will allow the company to outperform, maintain a premium valuation, and ultimately reach a price of $14,000 with revenues of +$1 trillion.\nYouTube in Numbers\nYouTube was originally conceived by three ex PayPal (PYPL) employees in 2005 and quickly acquired by Google in 2006 for $1.65 billion. WhenYouTube began, it received around 30,000 views per day. Today, it is the second most popular website in the world, with over 30 million visitors per day and 300 hours of content uploaded every minute.\nYouTube’s growth since its inception has been staggering, and, in terms of revenue, it is actually Google’s fastest-growing segment as of the last quarter:\nSource:10-Q\nGoogle Search & Other is where the bulk of revenue comes from, and this segment grew at a rate of 30% YoY.YouTube Ads, which accounts for a little over 10% of overall revenues, grew to the tune of 48.7%. This growth rate is even higher than Google Cloud, which increased by 45.73%. Furthermore, we must also take into account that theYouTube platform is also responsible for part of the revenues contained in Google Other. This segment includes revenues fromYouTube’s subscription services such asYouTube TV andYouTube Premium.\nLooking solely at the numbers, it is clear thatYouTube is a key segment driving growth in the company. But what can we expect ofYouTube going forward? And what makes it better than the competition?\nWhat makesYouTube a great business?\nIn a previous article on Visa(V), I discussed how the company showcases the 7 different business moats that Hamilton Helmer puts forward in his book 7 Powers. Looking atYouTube, we can also identify these compelling moats, which protect it from the competition and set it apart from other businesses.\nScale and Network Effect\nDue to the nature of the platform,YouTube enjoys both scale and network effects.YouTube can add more users without hardly increasing its costs. There may be some costs associated with hosting and even regulating content, but it is negligible. Any competitor wanting to enter this space would have to spend a considerable amount, just to get anywhere near having the infrastructure and contentYouTube has.\nOn top of that, with every new user/creator, the value of the network increases. The more people upload onYouTube, the more content there is available, which leads to more views and in turn, leads to more incentives to upload content toYouTube.\nSwitching costs and Branding\nAs far users go, there are indeed no real switching costs, but these come into play for creators. Those who have built a following onYouTube have strong incentives to continue growing their audience on the platform. Ultimately,YouTube offers both a compelling reward system for creators and access to the largest audience the internet has to offer.\nAs far as branding goes, we could certainly say thatYouTube excels in this arena. This can be seen by the fact thatYouTube has even become a commonly used verb and “YouTuber” is even used as a job title.YouTube is the go-to place around the world if you want to find any form of video content.\nCounter positioning and Process Power\nCounter-positioning refers to the idea that a company has a disruptive business model that others can’t copy. In this case, we have to think, is there a business model which could compete withYouTube and that the company can’t copy/absorb?\nWe actually have a perfect example of this happening in how companies likeSpotify(SPOT) are trying to compete with Google by offering content through subscriptions. However, in the last few years, we have seenYouTube launch its own subscription options, competing head-on with Spotify. Furthermore, Google also can absorb any competitor that it deems it can’t compete with head-on.\nProcess power can be defined as “embedded company organisation and activity sets which enable lower costs and/or superior product.” In the case ofYouTube, the “process power” is their algorithm and access to data, which allows them to serve both optimal content and advertising. Google’s access to data is unrivalled, and this is what allows it to be much more efficient.\nCornered resource\nLastly, we have the cornered resource. This means having exclusive access to a valuable resource. Patents are an example of this. In the case ofYouTube, there are a few elements that we could call cornered resources. The data that Google has access to, could be an example of this. Another exclusive resource thatYouTube has is its “YouTubers”. These individuals are providing content to Google for free daily. This content can indeed find its way to other platforms, butYouTube offers these creators attractive payment terms and a huge audience.\nThe future of YouTube Revenues\nThe only question that remains to be answered, is how will Google best monetizeYouTube? For the time being,YouTube’s main source of revenue is advertising. In recent quarters, the company has found particular success with direct-response ads, which create a sense of urgency and have a clear call-to-action.\nIn terms of advertising, what setsYouTube apart though, is its incredibly powerful AI, and it can offer something that traditional TV just can’t do. This was best described by Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster:\n\n YouTube is now best positioned to deliver on something we’ve talked about for a decade, which is two people watching the same live event but getting different ads.\n\nSource:CNBC\nYouTube is known for its user-generated content, but it’s just a matter of time before it moves into areas such as live sports and TV shows.\nThe most important step will be to increase the revenues coming from sellingYouTube as a service.YouTube Premium has been growing rapidly since 2015, and it could be an even larger source of revenue for Google than advertising. Ultimately, Google could unlock massive value by bundling together its services.YouTube Premium Cloud, for example, could all be part of one package. It’s all about building an ecosystem around the brand.\nForecast and Valuation\nIf we look at Alphabet’s revenue, it has a remarkably consistent growth pattern for a 10-year period.\n\nThe polynomial function you can see above is the most fitting mathematical expression to describe it. The R2 value is the measure of fit, which you can see is quite close to 100%. This function forecasts a slowly diminishing growth rate, from 18% in 2021 to 10% in 2030 in this case, which would take revenues to $600 billion in nine and a half years. The thing is, with growth rates dropping below 10% as the business becomes more consolidated, valuation multiples would likely come closer to the average for the sector. Let's compare the Price to Sales ratio, for example, which is currently at 8.70 (GAAP TTM) for Alphabet. If this were to change to the sector median ratio of 2.03, the share price would be only $1800.\nYou could and should argue that Alphabet’s superior sales multiple accounts for not only growth but also profitability, since the Price to Earnings ratio is also superior to the sector median (29.79 vs. 22.85), but not nearly by as much. To simplify, let’s say that the PE ratio is 30% higher than the sector median because of superior growth and that the PS ratio is 4.29 times as high as the sector median mainly because of profitability. If we take out the 30% growth factor it should only be 3.29 times higher than the sector median, which is a PS ratio of 6.67. At that ratio a revenue of $600bn without having the shares trading at $5,900. Starting at the current price of his means a yearly return of about 9%.\n\nAs you can see, the exponential trendline is also a remarkably good fit. This would forecast a constant growth of 19% per year, reaching $1.1 trillion in revenues.\nIf this is maintained, not only will revenue be higher, but also with a growth rate that isn’t diminishing, current above-average valuation multiples would still be justified. With this 1.1 trillion in revenues and a PS ratio of 8.7, as it is currently, the share price could reach over $14,000 by 2030, which is of course a 19% yearly return from the current price.\nI would risk stating the obvious if I just said that differences in growth sustained in the long run can have a large effect on the value of a company, but it is useful to put it into numbers for some perspective.\nSpeaking of Alphabet’s growth, let’s see what is happening with one of its promising segments, YouTube. This platform has given Alphabet increased revenues since its acquisition. Revenues have been mostly in the form of advertising, but this could shift in the coming years. YouTube had approximately 2.3bn users in 2020, having almost doubled in five years. If this trend continues, it could count as many as 6.9bn users by 2030.\nSource:YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps\nAd revenue per user is also growing consistently, especially as the platform increases the presence of advertising to push the premium subscription. We have made a forecast based on the data from the last 4 years, which is how long this segment has been disclosed separately in Alphabet’s statements of operations.\nSource: Author’s work based on Source: YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps and company records.\nYouTube has been attempting a higher monetization of its nearly 2.3bn users by pushing premium subscriptions. The prices are not fixed around the globe, but in the US, where most of the revenue is made, it is $11.99 a month or $119.88 per year. This is significantly higher than the ad revenue per user, and although the percentage of premium users is small, it is also true that it has increased ten-fold since 2015. If the trend continues it could hit almost 12% of total users by 2030.\nSource: Author’s work based on YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps\nIf we add together the forecast for total users, percentage of premium users and projected ad revenue per (non-premium) user, we come to a forecast of what YouTube’s revenue path could look like in the coming years. You can see it summarized in this table.\n\nThis forecast suggests that YouTube could bring in revenues close to $300bn by 2030, representing a CAGR of 28% from 2020. This combined with promising prospects for the cloud business and a seemingly continuous growth of its search engine revenue, would suggest that the overall Alphabet revenue will be closer to the $1.1tn mark than the $600bn, out of the two scenarios discussed earlier. If this is the case and it becomes apparent with further news on performance, and the market perceives as we do a likely long-term return near 19%, there will be plenty of room for a higher stock price shortly.\nTakeaway\nI believe that Google’s revenues are more likely to follow the exponential growth path laid out above. This is supported byYouTube’s increasing growth and profitability prospects. In my humble opinion, Google is set to be one of the best-performing companies of the next decade, and committing part of your portfolio to this company is a decision you won’t 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