The standout performance of the ChiNext Index has become a recent focus of market attention. The index recently reached its highest level in nearly 11 years. What are the primary drivers behind this surge to new highs? What factors could be key variables influencing its future trajectory? Which specific sectors warrant attention? We turn to the professional analysis of Lei Jun, General Manager of the Quantitative and Index Investment Department at Great Wall Fund.
When asked about the recent rebound in the ChiNext Index following earlier adjustments, culminating in a new high since June 2025, and the main drivers behind this achievement, Lei Jun identified a dual-engine drive: energy security and the AI computing revolution. Since the geopolitical conflicts in late February, oil price volatility has intensified significantly. The new energy sector has effectively hedged against volatility risks in traditional energy supply, leading to stronger stock performance during market adjustments. Stocks related to computing power are benefiting from the commencement of an earnings realization cycle and are currently experiencing high prosperity.
Regarding the current valuation level of the ChiNext board and its subsequent trend, Lei Jun stated that, historically, the current valuation is within the median range of the past decade. Compared horizontally with other sci-tech innovation indices, its valuation advantage is even more pronounced. Within the index, sub-sectors like new energy and communications have demonstrated impressive profitability, supported by solid fundamentals. With the intensification of global geopolitical games, disruptions to oil prices from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may become a long-term feature, which benefits new energy sub-sectors such as energy storage. Simultaneously, the market has already priced in marginal risks related to oil prices relatively fully. Tech growth directions like AI computing power are expected to become the core momentum driving the index upward.
On the subject of which specific investment opportunities he favors more, such as AI computing, energy storage, or biopharmaceuticals, Lei Jun expressed continued optimism for two main themes: energy storage and AI computing power. The former is crucial for energy security, while the latter is leading a new round of technological revolution. Both are core focal points in major power competition and strategic emerging industries receiving significant national investment, offering broad medium to long-term growth potential. Overall, the ChiNext Index contains high-quality assets in both directions, making it an excellent tool for a consolidated investment approach.
Commenting on recent reforms introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including opinions on deepening ChiNext reform to better serve the development of new quality productive forces, alongside measures like optimizing listing mechanisms and introducing market makers, Lei Jun noted that the ChiNext board has maintained strong inclusivity for technology industries since its inception, having nurtured outperforming stocks over the past decade in areas like fintech, new energy, computing power, and pharmaceuticals. This latest round of reforms further strengthens its orientation towards serving new quality productive forces, continuously broadens the board's scope and depth, and enhances capital market support for the real economy, making it more conducive to capturing diversified technology investment opportunities in the future.
From the perspective of the broader A-share market, regarding whether it has transitioned from a "valuation-driven" to an "earnings-driven" phase and if the growth style has returned, Lei Jun observed that the A-share market is undergoing a profound reshaping, with its industry structure having changed significantly compared to a decade ago. The proportion of hardcore areas like technology and high-end manufacturing is rapidly increasing. The shift from "valuation-driven" to "earnings-driven" is merely the first step; the future may see a move towards "innovation-driven" growth, rooted in the upgrade of China's economic and industrial structure, potentially marking a major cycle shift from traditional industry dominance to leadership by tech and growth sectors.
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