Haitong International: AI Power Shortage Bottleneck Becomes Increasingly Prominent, Focus on Coal Asset Prices Amid Global Energy Landscape

Stock News12-16

Domestic coal prices have shifted from an upward trend to a rational decline since November, according to Haitong International. The key to stabilizing coal prices hinges on winter demand. If temperatures drop more than expected in December-January, residential electricity demand could surge temporarily, driving up coal consumption at power plants and halting the price decline.

From a global energy perspective, coal-fired power remains a cornerstone in the short term, and Haitong recommends long-term opportunities in power-related assets. The firm highlights a critical challenge facing the U.S. power system: the "impossible triangle" of decarbonization goals, grid reliability, and the cost-speed demands of AI data centers amid rising electricity needs from AI and extreme weather. Haitong suggests the U.S. may need to prioritize grid reliability and AI infrastructure over decarbonization.

Based on this analysis, Haitong has developed a power system RM forecast for the U.S. through 2030, projecting new capacity additions and power generation by source, reinforcing a strategic bullish outlook on global energy.

**Thermal Coal: Off-Season Price Recovery** As of December 12, 2025, the Q5500 spot price at Huanghua Port in northern China was RMB 763/ton, down RMB 38/ton (-4.7%) week-on-week. Supply remains stable domestically but continues to shrink in imports, with total supply expected to decline steadily. Demand, however, has improved significantly despite the off-season, suggesting a potential Q3 profit rebound.

**Coking Coal: Resilient Demand in Off-Season** The price of Shanxi-produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port held steady at RMB 1,650/ton as of December 12, 2025. Daily pig iron output dipped slightly last week, but demand is expected to remain robust.

**Sector Review** - Jingtang Port main coking coal: RMB 1,650/ton (flat WoW) - Port-grade coke: RMB 1,686/ton (-3.2%) - Coking coal inventory at three ports: 3.01M tons (+3.8%) - Operating rate at coke producers with capacity >2M tons: 73.16% (-0.68 ppts) - Australia Newcastle Q5500 FOB price: down $8/ton (-8.8%) - Australian coking coal CFR price: $224/ton (+$3/ton WoW)

**Stock Picks** Haitong reiterates its focus on high-dividend plays: CHINA SHENHUA (601088.SH, 01088), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH, 01898). It also recommends tracking Yankuang Energy (600188.SH, 01171) and Jin Coal International (601001.SH).

**Risks** - Slower-than-expected macroeconomic growth - Surge in coal imports - Supply exceeding expectations

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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