首次买入芯片股，巴菲特看到了什么？

华尔街见闻2022-11-16

当一家公司股价在年内一度腰斩，大概率会失去投资者的宠爱，甚至被无情地从名单上抹去。然而当一家公司能凭借强劲业绩逆势向上，股价跌破关口反倒可助其成为舞台聚光灯下的焦点，甚至它会发现，巴菲特已然坐在观众席前列。这就是台积电。继被业内看好有望击败三星和英特尔，勇夺半导体王座之后，台积电凭借一己之力，不仅令芯片股首次获得巴菲特“垂青”，自己也直接跃升为伯克希尔哈撒韦前十大重仓股，成为苹果公司之后的第二大...

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Comments

Paggie
2022-11-17
Paggie
閱
安全价值
2022-11-17
安全价值
不是巴菲特買的……這很簡單，不在能力圈，他不知道英特爾和三星和臺積電這些公司的護城河，也不知道未來10年後護城河還是如此
百汇
2022-11-17
百汇
[微笑]
Jessicadream
2022-11-16
Jessicadream
Thanks for sharing, trust 股神 selection!
宛若一
2022-11-16
宛若一
巴菲特懂芯片？😂
- 宛若一:
  他买的花旗呢？
- 阁下就是韭菜:
  他不需要懂，只要他买，市场就会跟风，你猜股价会怎样 [捂脸]
朱文明
2022-11-16
朱文明
普通散戶能跟進嗎？

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Russo所说，他认为伯克希尔增持台积电的理由是“伯克希尔相信世界离不开台积电生产的产品”。领先的技术优势作为全球规模最大的芯片制造商，台积电在全球芯片代工市场占据55%以上的份额，高通、英伟达、AVGO、三星以及美国航空航天局都位列其客户名单。在7纳米制程和5纳米制程工艺的占比更是分别高达85%和90%，台积电手握关键技术，成为无可争议的领导者。在最为先进的3纳米制程工艺上，台积电同样位列行业前列，已在本季度实现量产。在这种前进速度之下，如果劲敌三星继续深陷良率问题，那么台积电或将在3纳米上直接形成垄断地位，苹果很可能“抢得头彩”，成为它第一个客户，另有七大客户紧随其后。而且即便已经保持相当明显的领先优势，台积电丝毫没有放慢脚步。台积电总裁魏哲家已经在今年8月承诺，2纳米可以保证在2025年量产。台积电也正是凭借巨大的技术优势，成功抵挡住消费电子市场的需求颓势，即使智能手机和PC厂商接连加入“砍单潮”，台积电也未如同行一般遭受猛烈风暴。在今年一季度，HPC（高性能计算）在台积电营收中的占比首次超过智能手机。因此，尽管全球最具权威的IT研究与顾问咨询公司Gartner已经预计半导体行业将在2023年萎缩2.5%，但于台积电而言，2023年反倒是增长之年。强劲的财务表现出色的利润率和稳健的资产负债表同样是台积电手中利刃，成为其强悍的“护城河”。回顾过去五年，台积电的平均毛利润高达50%，目前预计在2022年将进一步攀升至55%，一举冲破行业下行周期的禁锢。图片来源：Seekingalpha而在过去十年间，台积电的营收也从150亿美元跃升至超过600亿美元。这在很大程度上得益于台积电市场份额的增长，以及其所服务的终端市场的增长，例如智能手机、高性能计算机和数据中心、物联网设备、汽车等。台积电过去十年营收（图片来源：Seekingalpha）值得一提的是，台积电过去十年的平均单季业绩增长率约为16.8%，而这个数字在近期更是直接翻番达到36.65%，将英特尔和三星远远甩在身后。英特尔的平均单季增长率仅为2.9%，三星电子则为5.3%。台积电、英特尔、三星电子单季业绩增速对比（图片来源：Seekingalpha）此外，稳健的资产负债表也令台积电的竞争对手可望而不可即。虽然芯片行业属于资本密集型，动辄需投入数百亿资金用于开发新技术及新产能，但是台积电的资产负债表保持高流动性。相比于长期债务，台积电拥有更多的现金和短期投资，其中现金占总资产比例超过25%。截至今年三季度末，台积电持有470亿美元的现金和短期投资，相比之下债务总额为270亿美元。今年迄今为止，台积电现金及短期投资、长期债务趋势（来源：Seekingalpha）这也意味着，当行业发展陷入低迷期时，出色的财务状况可以帮助台积电稳住地位，勇于选定前进方面并可抵御未知风险。最新业绩也再度反映了台积电强劲的财务表现。台积电10月营收高达2102.66亿元新台币（约合479.41亿元人民币），较去年同期增加了56.3%。今年1-10月累计营收约为1.85万亿元新台币（约合4218亿元人民币），同比增加44%。另外在三季度，台积电毛利润上行至60.4%，环比增长1.3个百分点，高于此前57.5%-59.5%的毛利率指引。诱人的估值水平充满吸引力的估值也被认为是巴菲特青睐台积电的关键因素。正如前文提及，在今年经历大幅回撤之后，台积电股价的交易价值相对处于低位。目前台积电的企业价值倍数（EV/EBITDA）仅为7.8倍，远期市盈率甚至更低，约为7倍，远低于公司过去10年的平均水平。而且和西方众多领先半导体公司的估值水平相比，台积电更是“相差甚远”。荷兰ASML、英伟达、AMD和英特尔的估值分别为30倍、37倍、20倍和15倍。图片来源：Seekingalpha光电科技工业协进会（PIDA）的特别研究顾问Nobunaga Chai总结台积电被巴菲特重仓原因时表示：作为价值投资大师，巴菲特只选择长期前景乐观、财务状况及盈利能力良好、市盈率 (PE) 和市账率 (PB) 均相对较低的公司比率，而台积电在第三季度股价跌破关口时通过了所有测试。而且按照巴菲特的观点，他认为在大通胀时期，投资者在寻找标的时应注重两大商业特征：（1）拥有轻松提高价格的能力；（2） 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