On Tuesday, November 3, international gold prices experienced a rebound from lows but ultimately closed lower in choppy trading. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that no new progress had emerged in negotiations, causing oil prices to fluctuate and close higher. Combined with strong U.S. September JOLTS job openings and factory orders data, the U.S. dollar index stabilized after touching a one-month low, pressuring gold bulls. The rebound still faces headwinds, and short-term price action is expected to be dominated by bottoming consolidation.
On the upside, attention is on whether gold can reclaim above the trendline resistance, currently at the $4,130 level, to follow through on a rebound. On the downside, focus is on whether the 100-week moving average support holds, with the $3,800 mark or the 30-month moving average at $3,600 serving as potential levels for long-term bullish positioning targeting new highs. Until then, range-bound adjustment is expected, with opportunities on both the long and short sides.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $3,949.02 per ounce and initially declined, extending losses into the European session at 17:00 to record an intraday low of $3,895.73. It then rebounded, with consecutive rallies during the late European session at 20:00 and early U.S. session at 21:30 pushing prices to a daily high of $3,970.47. It ultimately faced resistance and pulled back, closing at $3,930.06, with a daily range of $74.74. Relative to the opening price, it closed down $18.96, a decline of 0.48%.
Looking ahead to today, Wednesday, November 4, international gold opened with a rebound but faced resistance at the 5-day moving average. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have recently stabilized and shown signs of recovery, putting pressure on gold prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and strait-related issues remain unresolved, keeping oil prices in a bullish outlook, which sustains Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and limits gold bulls. The market is expected to continue adjusting with a bias toward further declines.
During the day, attention will be on U.S. October ADP employment figures, the U.S. September trade balance, the final October S&P Global Services PMI, and the October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Overall market expectations lean toward being bullish for gold, but based on yesterday's data performance, there is also downside risk. In general, price action is expected to remain choppy, with opportunities on both sides.
On the weekly chart, gold has fallen into the upward trend channel that began in 2024 and has touched the 100-week moving average support as expected. Although the sub-chart indicators maintain a bearish signal, the main chart's ZZ indicator shows a bottoming-out after the pullback, and it has also touched moving average support and is near the bottom support of the upward trend channel. Therefore, a short-term rebound is likely. On the upside, watch the 5-week moving average resistance at $4,030 and the upward trendline resistance at $4,120. On the downside, watch support near the $3,880 and $3,800 levels.
On the daily chart, gold is currently rebounding outside the Bollinger Bands but is constrained by the 5-day moving average resistance. Bears still hold the advantage, and prices remain under pressure. Until gold reclaims the upward trendline that began in 2024, the bias remains weak. In the short term, the upper moving average resistance and the Bollinger Band middle rail resistance can be viewed as shorting opportunities, while the lower Bollinger Band support and the bottom of the upward trend channel can be viewed as bullish rebound levels.
Below are preliminary long and short entry point references for intraday operations. Specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications:
Gold: Watch support near $3,900 or $3,880 on the downside; watch resistance near $3,940 or $3,970 on the upside.
Silver: Watch support at $49.15 or $48.20 on the downside; watch resistance at $50.15 or $51.00 on the upside.
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