On February 3rd, the gold market recently staged an extreme 'roller coaster' ride. The sharp plunge that extended from last week until yesterday caused market sentiment to swing violently from frenzy to panic, while today's stabilization and rebound have opened up new speculative opportunities. For investors, deciphering the logic behind this round of price swings and distinguishing the boundary between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends is the core challenge in the current market environment. Looking back at recent price action, the volatility in the gold market has been intense. Since last week, the previously strong gold price began to show signs of fatigue, with selling pressure gradually being released. The decline culminated in yesterday's session, hitting a low around the 4400 level, marking a new recent low and pushing market panic to a peak. In terms of market drivers, this round of decline does not represent a fundamental reversal in the underlying fundamentals, but is more a result of emotional venting and profit-taking amplified by a confluence of short-term factors. The rapid surge from lower levels had accumulated substantial profits, and with catalysts like shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations and a strengthening US dollar, the willingness to cash in profits erupted. This, combined with forced liquidations from highly leveraged positions, further exacerbated the decline, creating a vicious cycle of 'decline-liquidation-further decline.' Notably, after two consecutive days of deep correction, the market has finally shown signs of recovery. Gold opened steadily today and has climbed back above the 4800 level, marking the first significant rebound following the rapid sell-off and confirming that the current market is not in a one-way downtrend. In essence, this correction appears more like a 'stress test' of the preceding overly rapid rally—a necessary process for cooling sentiment and digesting profit-taking—rather than the end of the long-term uptrend. The core logic supporting gold's long-term strength—ongoing central bank purchases, a weakening US dollar credit, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties—remains intact despite short-term volatility. Institutions generally maintain a positive outlook for gold's medium to long-term trajectory, with some even targeting a push above $6,000 per ounce within the year. In the short term, market complexity and uncertainty remain prominent, with key technical levels serving as the primary basis for judging subsequent price movements. Analyzing the hourly chart, the gap-down level from this week's opening around 4890-4900 has become a core resistance zone. This area is not only the starting point of the previous accelerated decline but also a critical battleground for the contest between bullish and bearish forces; its defense or breach will directly determine the short-term direction. While the gold price has recovered above 4800, whether it can further break through the 4890-4900 resistance band remains uncertain, leaving the market unable to confirm if an initial top has been formed. Based on the current market structure and technical patterns, today's trading strategy should adhere to principles of caution and flexibility, with the core approach centered around positioning at key levels. For short-term traders, consider initiating short positions upon a rebound above 4890 to test whether bearish momentum persists, while strictly setting stop-losses to guard against the risk of a breakout above resistance. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above the 4890-4900 resistance zone, it would indicate that short-term bullish forces have regained strength, warranting an adjustment in strategy to position for a new upward move. Conversely, if bearish forces re-emerge and the price loses the 4800 support level, a subsequent pullback towards the 4200 area cannot be ruled out, necessitating vigilance against the risk of a secondary decline. Overall, the gold market is currently in a transitional phase between short-term volatile consolidation and the continuation of its long-term trend. Investors must acknowledge the risks posed by short-term fluctuations, avoiding panic-driven,盲目trading, while also maintaining conviction in the long-term trend and not being misled by short-term adjustments into missing布局opportunities. In subsequent operations, it is crucial to closely monitor the battle around the 4890-4900 resistance and the 4800 support level, adjusting entry points and positioning strategies in real-time based on price action to capitalize on market opportunities while controlling risk.
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