On the afternoon of September 9th, international crude oil prices erupted once more, with Brent crude breaking through the $100 per barrel threshold. Simultaneously, natural rubber is edging dangerously close to the 20,000 yuan mark, while carbon black approaches the "10,000 yuan era." With raw material costs soaring across the board, approximately 30 tire manufacturers, including Zhongce Rubber, Giti Tire, Wanli Tire, and Prinx Chengshan, have successively issued price hike notices, ushering in the industry's third round of price increases this year.
Oil Prices Shatter $100, Widening Supply Gap
As of the time of writing, both Brent and New York crude are on the rise, with Brent accumulating a year-to-date gain of over 60%. The escalating situation in the Middle East is the direct catalyst: US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers carrying crude, and multiple Saudi energy facilities were attacked by Houthi rebels. Data from Rystad Energy shows that daily crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from 8-9 million barrels before the resurgence of conflict to below 2 million barrels. The IEA estimates that global oil supply will decrease by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, a drop of approximately 4%. Institutions like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and HSBC have all raised their oil price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs warning that if the situation escalates further, prices could surge to $120 per barrel. Domestic oil prices in China are set to enter an adjustment window at 24:00 on September 11th, with Jinlianchuang estimating that retail gasoline and diesel prices should be raised by 260 yuan per ton.
Rubber and Carbon Black Surge on Dual Fronts
The rubber market is also skyrocketing in tandem. At the close on September 9th, the main natural rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 19,770 yuan per ton, just a stone's throw from the 20,000 yuan mark. The previous day, the main contract for TSR 20 rubber hit a record high since listing, and synthetic rubber surged 4.59% in a single day, with the "three brothers" of the rubber complex all rallying sharply. The rally in carbon black is even more ferocious. Its upstream feedstock, coal tar, saw auction transaction prices rise by nearly 1,500 yuan compared to the same period last week, approaching historical highs. The market price for N220 is approximately 9,628 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of nearly 36%, while N330 experienced a single-day increase of up to 550 yuan. Discussions about carbon black entering the "10,000 yuan era" are rapidly heating up. Coal tar accounts for about 70%-80% of carbon black production costs, which in turn constitutes about 15% of tire costs, meaning price increases are cascading down the industrial chain. Data from SCI International shows that compared to a month ago, mixed rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber, and carbon black N330 have risen by 8.75%, 16.67%, 20.65%, and 16.89% respectively—a comprehensive surge across all four core raw materials. Analysts at Guotai Junan Futures point to a triple driver: oil prices pushing up butadiene, supply contraction, disrupted rubber tapping in Thailand coupled with El Ni帽o-related production cut expectations, and a strengthened atmosphere of price hikes across the industry chain.
30 Companies Announce Hikes, Ushering in the Third Price Wave of the Year
Under the weight of cost pressure, price hike notices are landing in rapid succession: Zhongce Rubber will raise prices on all-steel engineering tires by 3%-5% from September 15th, and by 3% on other off-road products from October 1st. Giti Tire will increase prices across all brand products in the replacement market by 2%-4% from September 27th. Wanli Tire will raise prices on certain domestic passenger car radial tire products by 3%-5% from September 23rd, without ruling out further adjustments. Prinx Chengshan will increase prices on all-steel and bias tires in the replacement market by 3% overall from September 26th. Other manufacturers like Fangxing Rubber, Weihai Rubber, and Jianxin Rubber have also followed suit. According to incomplete statistics, since late August, over 20 companies including Aeolus Tyre, Triangle Tire, Cheng Shin Rubber, and Maxxis International have already issued price adjustment notices. The total number of companies adjusting prices in this round has reached approximately 30, with mainstream increases ranging from 2% to 5%.
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