In 2024, MEDBOT-B (02252) faced a severe downturn due to R&D challenges, commercialization hurdles, and governance issues at its parent company. However, a shift in the parent firm’s equity structure and the growing potential of its "equipment + consumables" business model have recently reignited investor interest.
Zhitong Finance observed two major rallies for MEDBOT-B this year—between January-February and September-October—with the stock peaking at HK$33.70, marking a 252.14% surge. Yet, rapid gains often trigger profit-taking, leading to a technical pullback. After hitting its yearly high on October 8, the stock slid steadily, closing at HK$21.20 by November 21, a 37.09% drop from its peak.
Notably, southbound capital diverged from its typical "buy the dip, sell the rally" approach, instead increasing positions—hinting at expectations for a rebound.
**Technical Analysis: A "Squat Before the Jump"?** The stock’s decline from mid-October to mid-November must be contextualized with its September rally. On September 1, MEDBOT-B logged three consecutive bullish sessions, spiking nearly 40%, with volume surging to 31.82 million shares by September 3. Technically, the Bollinger Bands widened, and the stock broke through the upper band, signaling an exit from its consolidation range.
After a 13.28% gain on September 3, the stock entered a correction phase but rebounded later in September amid sector tailwinds, forming a steep upward channel. Despite volatility, long-term holders held firm, with the筹码峰 (chip concentration) anchored at HK$15–16, well below the HK$21.20 support level.
However, the rally lacked volume—a bearish divergence—with daily turnover dipping below 2 million shares at times. The subsequent correction, triggered by a long upper shadow on October 8, saw a 7.54% drop the next day, beginning a 30-day downtrend. Trading volume dwindled further, bottoming at under 2 million shares daily as the stock tested the Bollinger lower band.
By November 21, at the HK$21.20 support level, buyers re-emerged. Over the next three sessions, volume rebounded from 1.27 million to 3.02 million shares, suggesting renewed interest. A sustained volume uptick could reignite upward momentum.
**Southbound Capital Shifts Strategy** Contrary to its historical pattern, southbound capital began accumulating MEDBOT-B during its recent stabilization. In the past five days, sell-side pressure came from Citibank, Huatai Securities, HSBC, Soochow Securities, and Merrill Lynch, while Shenzhen Connect was the top buyer (977,000 shares). On November 28, both Shenzhen and Shanghai Connect channels were net buyers.
Yet, over 60 days, southbound capital remained net sellers (10.40 million and 7.33 million shares sold via Shenzhen and Shanghai Connect, respectively), primarily during the September-October rally. Post-correction, their holdings stabilized at 6–8%, with an average cost above HK$27, resulting in a 14.91% unrealized loss.
**Fundamental Improvements Underpin Optimism** MEDBOT-B’s H1 2025 revenue surged 77% YoY to RMB176 million, driven by overseas sales tripling. Cost controls slashed net losses by 59%. Global orders for its Toumai and Honghu systems reached ~150 units, with 50 overseas Toumai orders (30+ added in six months).
J.P. Morgan raised its price target to HK$42 (from HK$30.9), citing strong order momentum (170+ robotic systems by October 8 vs. 150 in August) and improved margins. The bank reiterated MEDBOT-B as a top Chinese medtech pick, viewing the pullback as a buying opportunity.
With technical and fundamental tailwinds aligning, MEDBOT-B’s trajectory hinges on whether volume confirms the nascent rebound.
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