On January 19, we previously held the view that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts within the year, coupled with the concentrated escalation of geopolitical risks—particularly the renewed intensification of the Greenland dispute—were stimulating safe-haven buying interest, thereby continuing to provide support for gold. Consequently, for trading strategies, we advised investors to monitor the support level at $4,600, followed by $4,580, while observing resistance at $4,642, and subsequently at $4,700.
Reviewing the subsequent price action, during the Asian and European sessions on Friday, gold maintained a high-level consolidation pattern. The price encountered resistance after rebounding to $4,620 and found support upon retreating to $4,591, exhibiting relatively muted overall volatility. Following the opening of the US session, gold stabilized after dipping to $4,582, rebounded to $4,620, then experienced a sharp, swift plunge to $4,536. However, the price quickly recovered, encountering resistance near the key $4,600 level, and subsequently traded predominantly within a narrow range between $4,580 and $4,600. Overall, aside from the brief, unexpected plunge and recovery, gold largely oscillated above our identified support level of $4,580.
Wolfinance star analysts attribute the sudden, sharp sell-off during Friday's US session primarily to comments from Donald Trump, who expressed a desire for Hassett to remain at the White House. Hassett's monetary policy stance is considered highly dovish, and he had previously been viewed as a leading contender for the next Fed Chair. This development led markets to slightly dial back expectations for a rate cut in June, causing a brief spike in the US dollar and the corresponding sharp drop in gold. Nevertheless, gold prices rebounded swiftly thereafter, as market participants maintained relatively high expectations for two Fed rate cuts within the year. Furthermore, the primary factors underpinning gold prices recently extend beyond Fed policy expectations to include the concentrated发酵 of geopolitical risks, which has heightened risk aversion and attracted a steady influx of safe-haven capital into the gold market.
On the daily chart, after encountering resistance following its ascent last week, gold's price action has persisted in a high-level consolidation phase. Key support below can be monitored around $4,580; gold found support upon retreating to this level last Thursday and consistently held above it during both the Asian/European sessions and after the US session plunge and recovery on Friday. A breach below this level in the short term would shift focus to the previous historical high near $4,550. Immediate resistance above is seen at the psychological $4,600 level, where the price faced suppression after Friday's rebound and failed to achieve a breakout despite multiple tests. A successful break above this barrier would bring the current all-time high of $4,642 into view. The 5-day moving average maintains a golden cross pattern but is pointing upwards, while the MACD indicator shows a slight downward inflection. Both the KDJ and RSI indicators, despite being in a golden cross formation, are also curving downward. These short-term technical signals suggest gold is experiencing adjustment pressures after its recent rally met resistance.
Intraday outlook for gold: The concentrated发酵 of geopolitical risks and expectations for two Fed rate cuts within the year continue to provide significant underlying support for the price. Trading strategy is recommended to adopt a range-trading approach. Support levels to watch are $4,580, followed by $4,550. Resistance levels are $4,600, followed by $4,642.
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