According to ZhiTong Finance App, today the three major Hong Kong stock indexes showed divergence, with the Hang Seng Tech Index edging lower; the market displayed a divergent pattern of "heavyweights and energy providing support while tech growth retreats," with capital rotating from AI hardware toward oil and gas, coal, and high-dividend sectors.
As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.51% to 23,211.81 points, with full-day turnover of HK$175.758 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.36% to 3,857.53 points.
Among Hong Kong ETF products ranked by size, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) rose 0.51% to HK$23.88; CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (03033) fell 0.53% to HK$3.778; CSOP SK Hynix Daily Leveraged (2x) Product (07709) rose 1.34% to HK$18.9.
Sector Performance: Geopolitical Premium Returns to Pricing, Oil and Energy ETFs All in the Green
As of the close, Petroleum ETF Penghua (159697.SZ) rose 3.54% to 1.316 yuan; Petroleum ETF Fullgoal (159148.SZ) rose 3.27% to 0.978 yuan; Energy and Chemical ETF Jianxin (159981.SZ) rose 3.25% to 1.908 yuan.
The sector driver came from renewed tensions in the Middle East. Last Friday, international oil prices already reacted first, with WTI crude rising 4.18% to $102.79 per barrel and Brent crude rising 2.58% to $111.91 per barrel, trading in a high-level range. Ping An Securities noted that the Middle East geopolitical deadlock is difficult to resolve in the short term, with both the US-Iran and Yemen situations facing significant escalation risks, the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorating, and the probability of a new round of US military strikes against Iran rising, meaning geopolitical risk support for international oil prices remains strong.
Beyond the crude oil chain, coal prices also provided support 鈥?the 5,500 kcal thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao Port rose to 1,040 yuan per ton on October 21, up more than 50% year-to-date, and the commodity-side resonance kept its gains largely in line with the first two products.
Cooling Overseas AI Trade Transmits Pressure, Semiconductor Equipment ETFs Retreat
As of the close, Semiconductor Equipment ETF Guotai (159516.SZ) fell 5.74% to 0.509 yuan; Semiconductor Equipment ETF Huaxia (562590.SH) fell 5.53% to 0.718 yuan; STAR Market Semiconductor Equipment ETF Huatai-PineBridge (588710.SH) fell 5.51% to 0.720 yuan.
On the news front, Musk warned over the weekend that companies lacking revenue independent of AI data centers can barely obtain financing, and predicted large-scale consolidation among new cloud service providers, reviving market doubts about the sustainability of debt-fueled compute expansion; combined with concentrated profit-taking after last Friday's high-volume tech sector rebound, that day's two-market turnover shrank to 1.61 trillion yuan, down 347.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with net outflows of 4.87 billion yuan from main funds in the semiconductor sector, and the STAR 50 Index closing down 2.23%.
On the industry side, SemiAnalysis proposed at an industry conference on October 23 that the AI infrastructure bottleneck has shifted from power to chip packaging substrates, causing short-term disruption to order rhythms on the equipment and materials side.
However, the medium-term outlook has not reversed, as Founder Securities noted that "global semiconductor equipment spending is accelerating, with 300mm wafer fab equipment spending projected to reach $149 billion in 2026, up 31% year-over-year."
Gold Price Loses $4,000 Mark, Gold ETFs Extend Recent Declines
Gold Stock ETF ICBC (159315.SZ) fell 3.76% to 1.381 yuan; Gold Stock ETF Guotai (517400.SH) fell 3.57% to 1.325 yuan; Gold Stock ETF Yongying (517520.SH) fell 3.46% to 1.674 yuan.
Spot gold intraday briefly dropped to $3,978.39 per ounce, hitting a new low since July 17; after the psychological $4,000 level was breached, leveraged funds triggered technical selling, with the cumulative maximum drawdown exceeding 15% since the August 25 high. Shenyin Wanguo Futures commented that "recent precious metals weakness is mainly constrained by Fed tightening expectations. Repeated US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher again, further raising inflation upside risks and thereby lifting rate hike expectations, which weighs on gold," and noted that the market expects the Fed to likely hold steady in October, but with a relatively high probability of a rate hike in December.
HSBC also lowered its gold price forecast, cutting its 2026 average gold price from $4,560 per ounce to $4,490 per ounce. The Fed's October 27-28 monetary policy meeting becomes the next observation window for gold's short-term direction.
Institutional Views
China Securities Co. noted that after last week's sharp decline, Hong Kong stock valuation pressure has been released to some extent: the Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen to a more than two-year low, growth stock valuation compression has been relatively thorough, and Friday's high-volume rebound also shows that bottom-fishing funds are becoming active, while high-dividend assets such as mainland banks and utilities still have allocation value in a high interest rate environment, providing bottom support for the index.
However, a trend recovery still needs confirmation, and the index level is expected to mainly see volatile bottoming, with a barbell structure of dividend defense as the base while waiting for clear stabilization signals in growth sectors being relatively favored.
Zhang Qiyao, chief strategy analyst at Industrial Securities, believes that in the short term, the current 10-year US Treasury yield pricing around 5.2-5.3% is basically reasonable; in the medium to long term, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes may be somewhat overestimated.
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