Abstract
Affirm Holdings, Inc. will release its latest quarterly results on February 05, 2026 Post Market, with investors focused on revenue trajectory, margin trends, and earnings power as the company navigates holiday-season BNPL demand and cost discipline.
Market Forecast
Based on the company’s financial forecast, revenue for the current quarter is estimated at $1.06 billion, implying an estimated year-over-year growth of 31.05%. Forecasts indicate EBIT of $88.64 million with an estimated year-over-year growth of 2.08%, and EPS of $0.26 with an estimated year-over-year growth of 2.73%. The main business outlook centers on sustained growth in interest-related revenue, merchant network fees, and loan-related earnings as GMV expansion and holiday season usage support scale. The most promising segment appears to be the interest revenue line at $0.45 billion in the last quarter, supported by strong BNPL utilization and improved funding efficiency year-over-year.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous reported quarter, Affirm Holdings, Inc. delivered revenue of $0.93 billion, gross profit margin of 48.77%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $80.69 million with quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.54%, net profit margin of 8.65%, and adjusted EPS of $0.23, reflecting year-over-year growth of 174.19%. A key highlight was EBIT of $63.66 million, which exceeded prior forecasts, indicating improved operating leverage. Main business performance showed diversified revenue contributions: interest revenue at $0.45 billion, merchant network fees at $0.25 billion, loans at $0.12 billion, virtual card network at $0.07 billion, and repair services at $0.04 billion.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business Momentum and Margin Trajectory
Affirm Holdings, Inc.’s core engine remains the combination of interest income and merchant network fees tied to BNPL transactions across large retail partners. Seasonal dynamics following the holiday period typically support higher GMV conversion, while unit economics depend on take rates and funding costs. The company’s last quarter gross margin of 48.77% sets a reference point, and the current quarter revenue forecast of $1.06 billion suggests that scale could sustain margin resilience, although the EBIT forecast growth of 2.08% implies cost pressures or elevated loss provisioning. Management’s prior execution on operating leverage—evidenced by the $63.66 million prior-quarter EBIT outperformance—positions the company to balance growth investment with expense control, yet maintaining net profit margin near high single digits will require disciplined risk management across underwriting and collections.
Most Promising Segment: Interest Revenue and BNPL Utilization
Interest revenue of $0.45 billion last quarter underscores the importance of funding efficiency and portfolio yield. As consumer usage remains robust around major retail events, Affirm Holdings, Inc. benefits from higher installment adoption without necessarily expanding promotional zero-interest offers. The forecasted revenue growth rate of 31.05% implies continued scale, where improved mix and pricing could contribute to stable or incremental margin gains. Monitoring portfolio credit performance is pivotal; sustained asset quality supports interest yield and keeps funding spreads favorable. If charge-offs or delinquencies remain contained, the net interest margin can underpin both EBIT and EPS forecasts, reinforcing a gradual path to consistent profitability.
Stock Price Drivers: Holiday Cohort Performance, Funding Costs, and Partner Expansion
The equity narrative this quarter will hinge on several variables with direct earnings linkage. Holiday cohort performance—measured through delinquencies, repayment velocity, and repeat usage—feeds directly into provision expense and realized margins. Funding costs remain a key lever, as securitization spreads and warehouse pricing influence net interest outcomes; a benign credit environment supports earnings visibility. Partner expansion and product engagement, including virtual card and merchant network breadth, can lift take rates and GMV without proportionate marketing spend, improving operating leverage. The extent to which Affirm Holdings, Inc. can demonstrate stable asset quality alongside rising revenue will be central to how investors interpret the modest EBIT growth forecast versus strong top-line expectations.
Analyst Opinions
The prevailing institutional tone is cautiously optimistic, with a greater proportion of analysts expecting Affirm Holdings, Inc. to meet or slightly exceed revenue forecasts while watching margins and credit metrics. Commentaries emphasize robust BNPL demand through the holiday season and continued merchant penetration, tempered by caution on loss rates and funding spreads. Analysts point to the prior-quarter EPS beat at $0.23 and EBIT outperformance as evidence of management’s improving cost control and scale benefits, yet consensus highlights that sustaining net profit margin around high single digits will require steady credit outcomes. Several well-followed institutions frame expectations around the company delivering revenue near the $1.06 billion estimate and EPS close to $0.26, with upside contingent on favorable unit economics and no deterioration in credit trends. Overall, the majority view leans positive on top-line momentum and cautiously constructive on profitability, suggesting the market will scrutinize margin and credit commentary for confirmation of durable earnings power.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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