As advancements in artificial intelligence continue to drive stock prices higher, Alphabet, Google's parent company, is making a bid for the title of the world's most valuable company, with some market participants already betting it could surpass NVIDIA and Apple within the next year.
According to the latest data from prediction market Polymarket, Alphabet has a 33% probability of becoming the world's largest company by December 2026, just behind NVIDIA's 37%. Earlier, Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, noted in a report that the two companies had once been tied at 36% in terms of their likelihood to claim the top spot.
Alphabet's stock has surged over 60% in 2025, positioning it as potentially the best-performing "Magnificent Seven" stock this year. Last month, the company overtook Microsoft to become the world's third-largest by market capitalization, now trailing only NVIDIA and Apple.
Rabe believes the prediction market rankings are "extremely favorable" for Alphabet, with optimism largely driven by the strong momentum of Google's large language model Gemini and its custom chips, known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).
**Prediction Market Heat and Market Cap Gap** Despite currently holding the third spot globally, Alphabet's rapid approach to the top has drawn significant market attention.
Current market cap figures show Alphabet still faces a notable gap to overtake NVIDIA. NVIDIA's market cap stands at $4.2 trillion, Apple's at $4 trillion, while Alphabet's is $3.7 trillion.
However, trading data from Polymarket reflects shifting investor sentiment. Jessica Rabe highlights that Alphabet's chances of surpassing its two rivals are rising. While its current 33% probability slightly trails NVIDIA's 37%, it suggests the market views such a reshuffling as plausible.
Analysts consider it reasonable for Alphabet to potentially become the world's most valuable company next year, despite its current lag behind NVIDIA. As early as September last year, MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson predicted this outcome, arguing that Alphabet's diversified business lines and accelerating cloud growth position it not only as a winner in the generative AI era but also as a strong contender for the title of "world's most valuable company."
**AI Chips and Gemini Model as Key Catalysts** The primary driver behind the bullish outlook for Alphabet lies in its progress in custom chips. Analysts are debating whether Alphabet could take market share from NVIDIA, as the company has begun renting out its TPU computing power to customers in addition to internal use.
Furthermore, the launch of Gemini 3 has been a major factor in this year's stock rally. The model, trained on TPUs, has outperformed OpenAI's ChatGPT in key benchmarks, further validating Alphabet's technological prowess in integrating hardware and software.
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