International precious metal prices closed lower across the board. Overnight, London spot gold fell by 3.86%, COMEX gold futures dropped 3.68%, and SHFE gold declined 2.23%. Escalating geopolitical tensions combined with a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve contributed to the pressure on gold. However, investors need not be overly pessimistic. With US inflation rebounding rapidly, there is an inherent expectation for real interest rates to weaken. A strategy of short-term observation or buying on dips is recommended.
The Federal Reserve's stance leaned hawkish, with the dot plot maintaining expectations for one interest rate cut each in the current and following year. Regarding the Summary of Economic Projections, compared to the December forecast, this report slightly raised the 2026 GDP growth expectation from 2.3% to 2.4%, but simultaneously increased the 2026 core PCE inflation expectation from 2.5% to 2.7%. This demonstrates the Fed's vigilance regarding the uncertainty of the impact of geopolitical conflicts on inflation and the economy.
On the geopolitical front, US-Iran tensions have escalated, with mutual attacks on energy facilities. Oil facilities in southern Iran were attacked, and Iran has stated it will retaliate by targeting oil facilities in three Middle Eastern countries. Iran struck the US-exclusive area of the Riyadh refinery, damaging crude oil equipment. This caused a rapid surge in crude oil prices and reignited market fears about disruptions to the global supply chain and a potential slowdown in the global economy.
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