Analysis of the latest gold market trends: On July 1st, a fundamental analysis of gold: During early Asian trading on Wednesday, spot gold was trading around $4009 per ounce. The price of gold fell by 11.2% cumulatively in June, marking its largest quarterly decline since 2013 at 14.14% in the second quarter, and also its first quarterly decline for 2024. Inflation concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict have reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may further raise interest rates, while prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire agreement have been clouded by uncertainty surrounding Qatari diplomatic mediation. Gold prices closed lower on Tuesday, narrowly holding above the $4000 per ounce level, touching their lowest point since last November during the session. The cumulative 11.2% decline in June and the largest quarterly drop since 2013 were primarily driven by inflation worries from the Middle East conflict strengthening expectations for potential Fed rate hikes, and uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire due to Qatari mediation—a senior US envoy did not hold high-level meetings with Iran.
Technical analysis of gold: Gold experienced a wave of emotional selling early yesterday, finding support and rebounding after falling to around 3943. The market saw a period of tug-of-war in the afternoon, encountering resistance near 4035. During the evening session, prices rallied again but quickly retreated after breaching the 4060 level, ultimately closing with a bearish doji candlestick on the daily chart. Judging from the daily chart structure, the bearish doji for gold and the bullish doji for the US dollar index represent a contradictory yet coordinated relationship. However, based on the actual intraday price action, gold seems to exhibit some independent movement needs. The current back-and-forth struggle around 4000 serves both as a technical correction and a further confirmation process for the prior downtrend. If this low-level consolidation persists over an extended period, it could be detrimental to the subsequent trend, indicating a high probability of further downward expansion. With market focus shifting to the upcoming non-farm payrolls data over the next two days, coupled with increased market expectations for a Fed rate hike within the year, gold has conditions conducive to further short-term declines. For the next two days, key resistance above lies at the 5-day moving average around 4020. Even if this level is breached, strong resistance remains near the 10-day moving average around 4080. Key support below to watch is around 3900. From a purely technical trend perspective, prices are highly likely to fluctuate between 4000 and 3900. However, traders must be vigilant for potential sharp volatility and breakout risks from the non-farm payrolls data.
Combined with the hourly chart analysis, gold rebounded after yesterday's decline and showed upward momentum in the evening session, indicating that bullish forces are stirring. However, hampered by sentiment influenced by fundamental factors, the current bullish momentum remains difficult to sustain and lacks robustness, with little hope visible in the medium term. Moreover, after today's opening, prices have fallen back below the hourly moving average band, shifting the focus of the short-term consolidation structure lower. This also increases the potential impact of the non-farm payrolls related data over the next two evenings. For today, gold may face resistance around the hourly moving average band at 4010-15. Initial support below can be observed around the lower boundary of the range at 3970, with main support potentially around the short-term trendline at 3930. Overall, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above focuses on the 4010-4050 zone, while key short-term support below focuses on the 3940-3900 zone.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends: Fundamental analysis of crude oil: During early Asian trading on Wednesday (Beijing time, July 1st), US crude oil was trading around $70 per barrel. US-Iran negotiations have reached a strategic stalemate, with Iran leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz to gain negotiation initiative. Oil prices fell nearly 29% in the second quarter. Oil prices showed little movement on Tuesday, with US crude trading around $70 per barrel. However, both Brent and US crude recorded their largest monthly decline (Brent down 19.94% in June) and quarterly decline (Brent plunged 28.99% in Q2) since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This wave of decline was mainly due to market caution regarding the prospects of US-Iran talks in Doha—Qatari officials stated that a senior US envoy would not hold high-level meetings with Iran this week, with only technical consultations taking place, potentially escalating later. Simultaneously, as some vessel traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, temporary additional supply eased risk premiums.
Technical analysis of crude oil: From the daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating the medium-term objective trend direction is entering a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the lower support boundary that held for over three months, with bearish momentum strengthening. It is anticipated that the medium-term price movement will primarily follow a downward rhythm. The short-term (1H) crude oil trend maintains low-level range-bound consolidation, with the fluctuation range between 72.40 and 68.50. This low-level correction pattern has persisted for four trading sessions, with bullish and bearish forces locked in a stalemate. In early trading, prices are near the lower end of the range. Focus will be on the support and resistance roles of the range boundaries. It is expected that intraday crude oil prices will maintain range-bound fluctuations, awaiting a breakout direction. Overall, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above focuses on the 72.0-74.0 zone, while key short-term support below focuses on the 68.0-66.0 zone.
Comments