**Agricultural Products Early Review | May 19, 2026** **Varieties:** Oils & Oilseeds, Rubber, Live Hogs, Apples, Cotton, Sugar, Jujubes
**Oils & Fats** **Palm Oil:** The main palm oil contract closed at 9,576 yuan per ton yesterday, rising 146 yuan, a gain of 1.55%. Basis: Tianjin -96 (-186), Shandong -96 (-86), Jiangsu -196 (-76), Guangdong -26 (-76). **Supply Side:** SPPOMA data for May 18 showed that from May 1-15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased 12.47% month-on-month, oil extraction rate fell 0.75%, and production declined 16.42% compared to the same period last month (previous data: -24.8%). The April MPOB report indicated Malaysian palm oil production in April 2026 was 1.6298 million tons, up 18.37% month-on-month from 1.3768 million tons in the same period last month. April Malaysian palm oil stocks increased 1.71% month-on-month to 2.3094 million tons, slightly above market expectations of 2.25-2.26 million tons. According to Malaysian inspection agency AmSpec, palm oil exports from Malaysia for May 1-15 were 502,228 tons, down 16.49% from 601,401 tons exported in the same period last month. The probability of a strong El Niño this year has increased, raising expectations for production reduction. Multiple meteorological agencies warn of a rising probability of El Niño in 2026, which would reduce rainfall in Asia and Australia, potentially cutting Indonesian palm oil output by 1-2 million tons. An Indonesian forestry task force spokesperson stated the group has confiscated 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations and industrial forest concessions, transferring 2.37 million hectares of seized plantations to state-owned palm oil company AGRINAS. **Demand Side:** On Wednesday, May 13, Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities announced the completion of technical integration with oil companies, ensuring supply chain, logistics, and infrastructure readiness at all blending depots. The biodiesel blending mandate will be upgraded from the current B10 to B15, effective June 1, with expected consumption increasing by 380,000 tons. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India noted in a statement that India's palm oil imports in April fell to 513,403 tons from 689,462 tons in March, the lowest since December 2025. Total vegetable oil imports grew 10% to 1.31 million tons. Media reports indicate the SEA has urged the Indian government to provide emergency support to the edible oil industry. Prime Minister Modi called on citizens to conserve petrol, diesel, and edible oil to address the global energy crisis and save foreign exchange, labeling it a patriotic act. Indonesian B50 biodiesel has completed road testing. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued an "urgent" directive on April 21, mandating nationwide enforcement of a B50 biodiesel blending policy (50% palm oil-based biodiesel in diesel) starting July 1, 2026. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, setting the Renewable Volume Obligation at 5.4 billion gallons, slightly below the initial 5.61 billion gallons. However, 70% of the exemption volumes from 2023-2025 have been reallocated to 2026 and 2027. US soybean oil consumption for biodiesel production in 2026 is projected to reach 7.6 to 8.6 million tons, a 35% increase from approximately 6 million tons in 2024. ABIOVE stated that Brazilian biodiesel producers are capable of supporting a 20% blend ratio and called on the government to allow market use above the legal 15% mandate to buffer energy shocks. Feedstock includes soybean oil and tallow. One new vessel was booked yesterday. Domestic palm oil inventories increased 4.3% week-on-week last week. **View:** Geopolitical tensions persist, with crude oil trading at elevated levels. Malaysian high-frequency data shows a month-on-month production decline. The B15 mandate implementation in June provides medium-to-long-term demand support from biodiesel. El Niño offers distant-month production reduction expectations. Domestic inventories continue to increase month-on-month. Indian edible demand is expected to weaken. Until geopolitical conflicts are resolved, maintain a view of high-level volatility. Consider buying on dips after stabilization or executing reverse spreads. Monitor geopolitical developments and biodiesel policies.
**Soybean Oil:** The main soybean oil contract closed at 8,475 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.47%. Basis: Fujian 418 (-2), Guangdong 278 (-2), Jiangsu 228 (-2), Shandong 128 (48), Tianjin 118 (48). **Supply Side:** The May USDA report provided its first estimates for the 2026/27 season, forecasting a 3.2% increase in global soybean planted area, a 0.1% rise in average yield, and a 3.3% increase in total global production, continuing the expectation of a bumper crop. US soybean planted area is expected to increase 4.1%, with yield flat, leading to a 4.1% rise in total production. For the 2026/27 season, Brazilian soybean area is projected to increase 3.1%, yield is estimated up 0.2%, resulting in a 3.3% production increase. Argentine soybean area is forecast to grow 4.9%, but yield is expected to fall 0.7%, leading to a 4.2% production increase. The National Grain and Oil Information Center noted that imported Brazilian soybeans will arrive in concentrated volumes in May, boosting crusher operating rates. Estimated monthly soybean crush is around 8.5 million tons, up approximately 1.6 million tons month-on-month, down about 500,000 tons year-on-year, and about 200,000 tons below the three-year average for the same period. **Demand Side:** (Refer to shared biodiesel demand points from Palm Oil section regarding Malaysia B15, Indonesia B50, US RVO, and Brazil ABIOVE). Domestic inventories increased 2% last week. **View:** Geopolitical tensions persist, with crude oil trading at elevated levels. The May USDA report maintains expectations for increased new-crop soybean production. Post-summit, US soybean purchase expectations are being realized, leading to a pullback in US beans. Strong US D4 RINs prices, coupled with intensifying strong El Niño expectations and rising costs for fertilizers and energy, provide medium-to-long-term demand support from biodiesel. Until geopolitical conflicts are resolved, maintain a view of high-level volatility and buy on dips. Monitor geopolitical developments and biodiesel policies.
**Rapeseed Oil:** The main rapeseed oil OI contract closed at 9,577 yuan per ton yesterday, down 22 yuan, a drop of 0.23%. Basis: Guangdong 123 (0), Guangxi 103 (0), Jiangsu 443 (-50), Fujian 163 (0). **Supply Side:** Canadian and Australian rapeseed stocks remained high at the end of March, estimated at 10 million tons and 3.7 million tons respectively, up 2.15 million tons and 1.2 million tons year-on-year. Cold temperatures may delay spring sowing on the Canadian prairies, but forecasts show above-normal temperatures and at-or-below-normal precipitation from May to July. The European Commission raised its EU rapeseed average yield forecast by 1% to 3.25 tons/hectare due to generally good crop conditions. However, drought in parts of Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and the Baltics is concerning and may lead to yields below current expectations. Strategie Grains lowered its 2026 EU rapeseed production forecast by 200,000 tons, below market expectations. According to Oil World, Canadian rapeseed planted area is expected to increase by 500,000 hectares this year due to improved demand prospects and poor grain planting returns. A potential El Niño in the coming months may threaten Australian rapeseed production for the 2026/27 season. On February 28, China's Ministry of Commerce formally ruled that imported Canadian rapeseed was being dumped and decided to impose a 5.9% anti-dumping duty on relevant Canadian companies for five years starting March 1, 2026. China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding on implementing and reviewing the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. **Demand Side:** (Refer to shared biodiesel demand points from Palm Oil section regarding Malaysia B15, Indonesia B50, US RVO, Brazil ABIOVE). Canada's latest biofuel incentive plan explicitly lists rapeseed oil as a core feedstock. Domestic inventories increased 4.7% week-on-week last week. **View:** Geopolitical tensions persist, with crude oil trading at elevated levels. Strong El Niño expectations are intensifying, with rising costs for fertilizers and energy. Biodiesel provides medium-to-long-term demand support. Until geopolitical conflicts are resolved, maintain a view of high-level volatility and buy on dips. Monitor geopolitical developments and biodiesel policies.
**Soybean & Rapeseed Meal** **Today's Theme:** Divergent Trends Continue Between Domestic and International Markets; El Niño Yet to Impact Growing Areas **I. Market View** Price-wise, Guangdong soybean meal spot was quoted at 2,830 yuan per ton yesterday, down 10 yuan day-on-day, with a basis of -155 yuan per ton, weakening by 16 yuan. **Supply Side:** Imported soybean supply is ample. Domestic crusher operating rates improved significantly last week. Monitoring shows that as of the week ending May 15, major domestic crushers processed 2.00 million tons of soybeans, up 470,000 tons week-on-week, 100,000 tons higher year-on-year, and 230,000 tons above the three-year average for the same period. Crusher operating rates are expected to continue rising this week, with soybean crush volume around 2.20 million tons. **Demand Side:** Imported soybeans are arriving in concentrated volumes in May. Post-holiday, crusher operating rates rebounded rapidly. Based on crush monitoring, major domestic crushers processed approximately 3.50 million tons of soybeans nationwide in May as of May 15. Estimated monthly crush is around 8.50 million tons, up approximately 1.60 million tons month-on-month, down about 500,000 tons year-on-year, and about 200,000 tons below the three-year average for the same period. **Conclusion:** Recently, US soybeans have continued to trade strongly amid optimistic expectations, while domestic soybean meal futures face valuation constraints due to weak fundamentals, sustaining the divergent trend between domestic and international markets. Looking ahead, with the concentrated arrival of domestic soybeans, crusher operating rates are expected to continue rising, maintaining significant supply pressure on the soybean meal market. Spot prices are expected to continue fluctuating weakly, with the basis potentially weakening in the short term. Strategically, view domestic soybean meal with a bearish bias. **II. News & Data** 1. Agency Data: Recently, domestic and international soybean markets have risen then fallen. Following the release of the bullish May USDA WASDE report, US soybean futures once rose to near two-month highs. However, prices retreated significantly due to US soybean export data hitting an annual low, strong expectations for a South American bumper crop, and a seasonal slowdown in US soybean crushing. Domestic soybean inventories are at multi-year highs for the same period, with downstream buyers cautious. The supply-demand structure is weak. While domestic soybean product futures have followed the rhythm of US soybean price movements, their overall performance has been weaker than the external market. 2. Agency News: Customs statistics show China imported 8.478 million tons of soybeans in April 2026, a year-on-year increase of 2.397 million tons (39.4%) and a month-on-month increase of 4.459 million tons (52.6%). This is mainly due to delayed customs clearance of arriving soybeans in March after enhanced quarantine measures, resulting in lower March imports and many cargoes being delayed until April for clearance. After quarantine procedures were relaxed later, soybean clearance returned to normal, leading to a significant increase in April imports, exceeding the total volume of soybeans arriving in March. 3. Market Rumor: Soybeans: 1. The 10% tariff is suspended, not canceled, for June. 2. Procurement target commitment. Further implementation of the agreement reached in October 2025 to import 25 million tons annually. 3. Regular review mechanism. Actual purchases will heavily depend on market prices and the geopolitical environment. 4. Macro News: China and the US may reach an agricultural trade agreement, but limited Chinese soybean demand will be the biggest constraint. During the upcoming Sino-US leaders' summit, the two sides may reach an agreement to expand China's purchases of US grains and meat. However, market observers generally believe that, given weak demand and the substitution effect of cheap Brazilian soybeans, China is unlikely to significantly increase soybean purchases beyond the commitments made at last October's summit.
**Rubber** **Today's Theme:** Synthetic Rubber Regains Leadership; Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices Retreat **I. View Summary** Raw material prices: Thai central market cup lump was quoted at 84 baht/kg yesterday, down 1.5 baht day-on-day; RSS3 was quoted at 69.31 baht/kg, down 2 baht. Spot prices: Shandong region SCR WF was quoted at 17,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. **Supply Side:** Monitoring shows rainfall in northern Thailand has increased significantly month-on-month, with no drought reported yet. Production-wise, March ANRPC data showed a year-on-year weakening. From a medium-term perspective, the NINO3.4 index rose sharply this week to 0.9, approaching a strong El Niño climate, further intensifying the weather narrative. **Demand Side:** Recent domestic demand performance has been good. Tire operating rates have recovered week-on-week, and finished product inventories may maintain a destocking trend. **Conclusion:** The most significant macro change over the weekend was the renewed escalation of US-Iran war risks. Yesterday, domestic commodities returned to the theme of chemical products leading gains. Strong gains in synthetic rubber also drove natural rubber higher. Looking ahead, the trend of destocking in Qingdao bonded areas and inventory building in non-bonded areas continues this week. The short-term overall social destocking trend is slowing, with relatively ample spot flow. Strategically, continue to buy natural rubber on dips. For spreads, recommend long-short calendar spreads. **II. News & Data** 1. Agency News: As of May 17, 2026, sample general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 4,300 tons to 603,400 tons compared to the previous period (May 10), a rise of 0.72%. As of the same date, sample bonded inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 7,800 tons to 111,800 tons compared to the previous period, a drop of 6.52%. 2. Agency News: Truck tire supply is ample, but market shipments are slow. It is understood that most companies are operating stably. Some truck tire companies that underwent maintenance have restarted operations, with production gradually recovering. To control costs, operating rates will be gradually raised to high levels in the coming days. Truck tire product supply is ample, but overall shipment performance is poor, with overall inventories still showing a slight increase. 3. Agency News: China's tire export volume in the first four months increased 5.8% year-on-year. According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on May 18, China's rubber tire export volume in the first four months of 2026 reached 3.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%; export value was 53.8 billion yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year. 4. Agency News: From January to April, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased 5.6% year-on-year. The national service industry production index increased 4.9% year-on-year. Total retail sales of consumer goods from January to April reached 16.4941 trillion yuan, up 1.9% year-on-year.
**Live Hogs** **Today's Theme:** Ample Supply, Lack of Clear Contradictions **I. Market View** Spot market: The spot price was quoted at 9.53 yuan/kg yesterday, unchanged day-on-day. The LH2607 main contract closed at 10,730 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The main contract basis was -730 yuan/ton, widening by 300 yuan. **Supply Side:** Recently, the pace of slaughter from the breeding side has been normal, with the market reflecting ample supply. Regarding weight, group and散户 weights have turned to growth. Data shows the average slaughter weight this week was 128.85 kg, up 0.17 kg from last week, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and down 0.66% year-on-year. The average slaughter weight for groups was 125.52 kg, up 0.21 kg week-on-week, down 1.06% year-on-year. The average slaughter weight for散户 was 147.02 kg, up 0.49 kg week-on-week, up 6.37% year-on-year. **Demand Side:** Terminal demand is平淡, leading to窄 adjustments in slaughter volume. Speculative demand continues to increase. Data shows that as of May 10, the average utilization rate of二次育肥 pens nationwide increased 7% week-on-week, averaging around 50%. Significant growth was seen in core supply regions like Henan and Shandong. **Conclusion:** Recently, the oversupply pattern in the hog market has continued. Spot prices lack clear upward or downward drivers, with short-term矛盾 weakening. Looking ahead, firstly regarding肥猪, the slaughter pace is normal with no signs of panic selling. Recently, the price difference between 150-170kg hogs and standard hogs has remained around 0.10 yuan/kg. From the supply side, recent slaughter volumes have declined month-on-month compared to April, but the decrease in weight is less than expected, so supply pressure remains significant. Terminal demand shows no clear improvement, suggesting a震荡 view for hog prices. For futures, with spot prices moving in a narrow range, the main trading logic for contracts remains收升水. Short-term valuation矛盾 is not obvious. Strategically, favor selling on rallies. **II. News & Data** 1. Agency News: Today, procurement at most slaughterhouses proceeded relatively smoothly.个别 markets saw溢价 due to weather conditions. Tomorrow's market prices may maintain小幅震荡. 2. Agency News: Recently, most markets have reported that二次育肥 restocking enthusiasm is generally low,基本 maintaining零星进场 with no集中表现. Regarding出栏,观望情绪 dominates, with potential出栏 at month-end or in June. 3. Agency News: According to sample data from Shanghai Steel Union's key breeding enterprises, the national daily hog出栏 volume for key enterprises on May 18, 2026 was 282,386头, down 2.63% from the previous working day. In the short term, the market supply-demand僵持格局 persists, with hog出栏 volume undergoing窄幅调整.
**Apple** **Apple:** Bagging of new-season apples is gradually beginning in producing areas, with overall performance currently良好. In Shandong producing areas, prices for stored late-season paper-bag富士 are stable. Storage owners are积极 selling, while most traders are观望 and purchasing as needed, with成交量一般. In Shaanxi producing areas, mainstream prices are stable. Buyers are采购偏谨慎, with平稳成交. Many traders are packaging their own inventory.果农 low-quality货源出货缓慢, with果农着急出货 and few buyers making purchases. Currently,现货端 general quality货源 face some pressure. Weather overall has little impact. Futures prices have broken support and declined. As producing areas gradually complete bagging, the situation will become clearer by month-end. For the October contract, maintain a strategy of selling on反弹逢高. Monitor近期 weather and consumption情况.
**Jujube** **Jujube:** Accumulated temperatures in the main灰枣 producing regions are generally higher than in recent years. Farmers are actively engaged in field management tasks like pruning, fertilizing, and芽 removal, which are proceeding orderly. Currently entering the initial flowering stage, about half a month earlier than usual.持续关注花期天气问题. At the Cui'erzhuang market in Hebei, 7 vehicles arrived in the parking area, including both finished products and off-grade. Buyers selected suitable货源按需采购, with少量成交受天气影响. At the Ruyifang market in Guangdong, 2 vehicles arrived, with prices temporarily stable. Downstream buyers purchased as needed. Overall, supply-demand过剩 is relatively明确. As new-season jujube trees gradually sprout, weather's influence权重 increases. Maintain a view of底部震荡,等待新驱动.
**Cotton** **Cotton May 19, 2026** **I. Market View** **Price:** On May 18, the domestic Xinjiang cotton 3128B average price was 17,661 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan day-on-day. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 16,090 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.03%). The spot-futures basis was 1,571 yuan/ton, widening by 5 yuan. **Supply Side:** The USDA首次 published its global cotton production forecast for the 2026/27 season, projecting global output at 25.30 million tons, down 3.1% year-on-year. Domestically, China's total cotton production is forecast at 7.30 million tons, down 5%, with both area and yield revised downward due to China's new-season cotton planting reduction policy and concerns over new-season weather conditions. US total cotton production is forecast at 2.90 million tons, down 4.3%, mainly due to下调收获面积受当前主产区土壤干旱影响. Brazil's CONAB released its seventh 2026/27 season cotton production forecast,上调总产预期至3.843 million tons, down 5.8% year-on-year, and up 40,000 tons from the March production forecast. **Demand Side:** National downstream operating rates are gradually improving. Demand performed well during the "Golden March" period, with "Silver April" demand showing year-on-year growth. **Conclusion:** Previously, domestic and international cotton prices corrected significantly in sync. The bearish impact of weaker-than-expected US cotton exports and macro risks has been partially digested, temporarily stabilizing prices. The USDA's global stock-to-use ratio for the 2026/27 season was下调超预期至59.04%, down 5.28 percentage points year-on-year. The BCO production survey showed Xinjiang's cotton planting area was revised down month-on-month. The 2026 national cotton planted area was revised down to 45.168 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. Expectations for new-season planting area reduction will be gradually verified. The US cotton drought rate has eased somewhat, but soil moisture remains low, providing potential for further upside in US cotton. Domestically, remain vigilant against利空 policies like抛储. The USDA's首次 forecast for 2026/27 global cotton production at 25.30 million tons, down 3.1% year-on-year, indicates global cotton supply and demand are shifting towards a紧平衡格局. Fundamentals continue to improve, and the logic for higher cotton prices remains unchanged. Operationally,建议逢低做多. Subsequently,重点跟踪 domestic and international new-season planting progress, weather changes, and domestic Xinjiang cotton planting subsidy policies. **II. News & Data** 1. The USDA首次 published its global cotton production forecast for the 2026/27 season, projecting global output at 25.30 million tons, down 3.1% year-on-year. Domestically, China's total production is forecast at 7.30 million tons, down 5%. US total production is forecast at 2.90 million tons, down 4.3%. 2. BCO 2026 National Cotton Actual Sown Area Survey: The 2026 national cotton planted area was revised down by 1.081 million mu to 45.168 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. Total production was revised up by 20,000 tons to 7.258 million tons, down 6.8% year-on-year. 3. CONAB's seventh 2026/27 season cotton production forecast: Due to expected increases in planted area in Bahia and Piauí states, national planted area is expected to reach 2.042 million hectares, down 2.1% year-on-year.受化肥价格上涨影响, national yield is expected to be小幅下调至1,880.2 kg/hectare, down 3.8% year-on-year. Based on this, total production is expected to be上调至3.843 million tons, down 5.8% year-on-year, and up 40,000 tons from the March production forecast. 4. In March 2026, the China Cotton Association conducted its third survey of 2026 planting intentions among 1,857定点农户 in 10 provinces/municipalities and Xinjiang. Results showed the national intended cotton planting area is 43.118 million mu, down 3.8% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 3.3 percentage points from the previous survey. 5. USDA Planting Intentions Report: Forecasts 2026 US cotton planted area at 9.64 million acres. Reuters expected 9.229 million acres. The February 2026 Outlook Forum forecast was 9.40 million acres. The final 2025 planted area was 9.28 million acres. 6. National Development and Reform Commission: The total quota for cotton imports under the滑准税加工贸易 for 2026 is 300,000 tons.
**Sugar** **Sugar May 19, 2026** **I. Market View** **Price:** On May 18, the domestic Nanning sugar spot price was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan day-on-day. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract closed at 5,429 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (0.15%). The spot-futures basis was -29 yuan/ton, narrowing by 12 yuan. **Supply Side:** **India:** For the 2025/26 season as of April 30, cumulative sugar production reached 27.528 million tons, up approximately 7% year-on-year. According to Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy, the country plans to submit a proposal at the National Energy Policy Council meeting in early May to raise the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline from 30% to 32%. **Domestically:** As of the end of March 2026, cumulative sugar production for the current season was 11.83 million tons, up 1.0821 million tons year-on-year. Cumulative sales were 5.13 million tons, down 895,800 tons year-on-year. Industrial inventories were 6.70 million tons, up 1.4879 million tons year-on-year. The cumulative sales ratio was 43.36%, slowing by 12.42 percentage points year-on-year. **Imports:** China imported 100,000 tons of sugar in March 2026, up 30,000 tons year-on-year. Cumulative imports for Jan-Mar 2026 were 620,000 tons, up 470,000 tons year-on-year. For the 2025/26 season as of end-March, cumulative imports were 2.39 million tons, up 780,000 tons year-on-year. **Others:** As of April 14, Thailand's 2025/26 season cumulative sugar production was 11.9568 million tons. As of April 15, India's 2025/26 season cumulative production was 27.39 million tons, up 1.96 million tons year-on-year. IBGE estimates Brazil's 2026 sugarcane production at 706.03 million tons, up 0.4% year-on-year. **Demand Side:** Currently in the consumption off-season, downstream采购 is mainly for刚性需求, with overall成交一般 and a slowing sales-to-production ratio. **Conclusion:** The domestic sugar market operated weakly overall yesterday. The current season's fundamental pattern of strong supply, weak demand, and high inventories continues. **Internationally:** Oil prices remain elevated, raising concerns that rising oil prices will drive up Brazilian gasoline prices. A widening sugar-ethanol price spread could curb the sugar mix and reduce sugar supply. **Domestically:** Sugar mills in main producing regions have finished crushing. The peak domestic supply pressure phase is gradually passing, but库存压力较大受糖料丰产影响. In summary, although宽松 supply and不振 demand this season limit upside momentum, current sugar valuations are at relatively low levels with strong cost support below. Additionally, El Niño expectations have大增, limiting downside空间. Operationally,建议逢低买入. Subsequently,需重点关注 the持续情况 of geopolitical conflicts and the evolution of global El Niño weather. **II. News & Data** 1. The May USDA forecast continued to调增 domestic sugar production for the 2025/26 season to 12.80 million tons, and首次 forecast 2026/27 season production to increase to 12.93 million tons. 2. For the 2026/27 season as of the first half of April, cumulative crush in Brazil's Center-South region was 19.956 million tons, up 3.28 million tons (19.67%) from 16.676 million tons in the same period last year. The cumulative sugar mix was 32.93%, down 11.78 percentage points from 44.71% last year. Cumulative sugar production was 647,000 tons, down 88,000 tons (11.94%) from 735,000 tons last year. 3. Brazil's National Commodities Supply Company (Conab) estimates Brazil's 2025/26 season sugar production at 44.20 million tons, up 0.1% year-on-year. It estimates sugarcane ethanol production at 27.33 billion liters, down 6.9% year-on-year. It estimates total ethanol production from sugarcane and corn at 37.5 billion liters, up 0.8% year-on-year. 4. As of end-March, over half of Guangxi's sugar mills had finished crushing. Estimated Guangxi sugar production in March alone was 1.40-1.50 million tons, reaching the second-highest level in nearly ten seasons, only lower than 1.665 million tons in the 2018/19 season, and大增 1.10-1.20 million tons year-on-year. Cumulative Guangxi sugar production as of end-March for the 2025/26 season is estimated to突破 7 million tons. 5. According to the latest estimate from the Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season is expected to be revised down, with net sugar production projected at 29.30 million tons. 6. The Dubai Sugar Conference indicated that the global surplus for the 2026/27 season may narrow to about 1.40 million tons, lower than the 4.70 million tons for the 2025/26 season.
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