ND PAPER (02689) saw its shares climb more than 3%. As of the time of writing, the stock was up 3.39%, trading at HK$8.24, with a turnover of HK$25.96 million. Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that ND PAPER expects its net profit for the first half of 2026 to increase by 216% to 231% year-on-year, reaching 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan, slightly exceeding the bank's forecast of 2 billion yuan and generally aligning with expectations. The bank predicts the group will deliver robust full-year results for fiscal 2026, noting that the first half is traditionally a low consumption season for paper manufacturers, which might imply a minor correction in paper prices. However, Morgan Stanley believes the group's optimized product mix and superior cost performance should cushion the impact of slowing demand during the off-season, thereby contributing to steady earnings for the full year. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the company's pulp-paper integration has yielded significant results; by the end of 2025, it is projected to possess a production capacity of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp, over 2 million tons of wood fiber, and more than 5.4 million tons of wood pulp, with an expected self-sufficiency in raw materials reaching 10.2 million tons by 2027. The securities firm believes that demand for containerboard has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the past five years, while capital expenditure from leading suppliers has narrowed, leading to an improved industry supply-demand dynamic; the pulp-paper sector may be approaching a cyclical inflection point against the backdrop of a stronger Renminbi, with integrated leaders like ND PAPER standing to benefit more.
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