The current market conditions are challenging, with indices predominantly in the red. Sector rotations are rapid—today’s hot sector fizzles out tomorrow, making it difficult to keep up. Many are left wondering: Why does the market feel so treacherous?
The root of this volatility lies in November’s financial data, which revealed three critical trends: 1. **M1-M2 Spread at -3.1%**: This indicates money is stagnant, with households and businesses preferring savings over spending or investing. 2. **Household Loans Plummeted**: A 53% YoY drop in household loans signals deleveraging and weak consumption. 3. **Government Bonds Surged**: A ¥3.61 trillion YoY increase in net financing highlights reliance on fiscal stimulus to prop up the economy.
Despite the gloom, this could mark a turning point. Historical patterns suggest a "Spring Rally" is likely in 2026, driven by: - **Policy Catalysts**: Key meetings in December and March set the tone for market direction. - **Liquidity Boost**: Banks’ "New Year rush" and seasonal fund flows typically buoy markets. - **Earnings Lull**: The absence of negative news during the reporting vacuum fuels optimism. - **Institutional Rebalancing**: Fund managers’ fresh allocations raise risk appetite.
**Where to Focus?** The consensus is on a dual-track strategy: 1. **Tech (AI)**: With giants like Apple and C3.ai, Inc. (AI) investing heavily, AI’s transformative potential spans industries. The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) offers diversified exposure but carries high volatility. 2. **Cyclicals**: Commodities like copper and gold are rebounding. Undervalued cyclical stocks could surge on even modest earnings improvements.
**Actionable Advice**: 1. **Stay Light**: Maintain ~60-70%仓位 to capitalize on dips. 2. **Avoid Chasing Trends**: Focus on long-term themes rather than fleeting rotations. 3. **Keep Faith**: Market cycles favor patience—today’s lows may seed tomorrow’s gains.
*Conclusion*: Mastery of cycles, not mere effort, breeds wealth. As pessimism peaks, the astute prepare for spring.
*Risk Warning*: Views are personal. Short-term moves don’t predict futures. Invest prudently.
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