Deutsche Bank Suggests Japan May Hold Off on Yen Intervention Until USD/JPY Falls Significantly Below 160

Deep News07:20

Deutsche Bank AG indicated that Japan might wait until the USD/JPY exchange rate "significantly surpasses 160" before stepping in to purchase yen. Strategist Tim Baker noted that the bank's USD/JPY model, which factors in real interest rate differentials, oil prices, and the S&P 500 index, suggests a fair value of around 154, implying the current spot rate is only overvalued by about 3%. He stated, "The criteria for excessive volatility cited by Japanese policymakers when considering intervention do not appear particularly extreme at this point." Baker also pointed out that the pace of the recent appreciation remains considerably slower than previously observed benchmarks, with little evidence of large-scale speculative positioning. Expectations for capital repatriation have also eased, with the latest monthly data showing that recent sales of overseas bonds were conducted by banks rather than investors.

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