Today (October 27), the Nonferrous Metals Leaders ETF (159876), which covers leading companies in the nonferrous metals sector, saw an intraday gain of up to 2.96%, currently up 2.16%, with real-time turnover exceeding 52 million yuan, indicating active trading. The ETF reclaimed its 10-day moving average and is poised for a fifth consecutive daily gain, with its daily K-line potentially forming an "upward staircase" pattern.
From a technical analysis perspective, the 10-day moving average reflects the short-term (approximately two-week) market average cost. A stock price reclaiming this line suggests that short-term bullish momentum is strong enough to push the price above the "short-term cost line," indicating an advantage for bulls in the near-term market. If the recovery of the 10-day moving average is accompanied by increased trading volume, the signal is more reliable, possibly reflecting active capital inflows.
Among the constituent stocks, Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. hit the daily limit-up, while Huayu Mining and Jiangxi Copper rose over 6%, Western Superconducting surged more than 5%, and Yunnan Tin, Baowu Magnesium, and Shengtai Lithium also posted gains.
On the macroeconomic front, U.S. September CPI data came in below expectations across the board, providing solid support for further Fed rate cuts this week. On October 24, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. September CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year, while core CPI slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, both below market expectations.
How do Fed rate cuts drive up nonferrous metal prices? Industry experts explain in three key points: 1) Fed rate cuts equate to monetary easing, leading to currency depreciation and prompting investors to favor tangible assets that hold value better. 2) Most nonferrous metals are priced in U.S. dollars on international markets. A Fed rate cut weakens the dollar, making dollar-denominated metals relatively cheaper and boosting global demand. 3) Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for businesses, encouraging production expansion and increasing demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum.
Looking ahead, analysts believe nonferrous metals, as globally priced commodities, will be a major driver in this commodity bull market. On one hand, long-term capital expenditure cycles have pushed nonferrous metals into a prolonged period of tight supply and rising prices. On the other hand, the global manufacturing investment cycle continues to rise, coupled with strategic metal reserve demands amid deglobalization, further boosting demand. Additionally, expectations of a domestic macroeconomic recovery reinforce this outlook. With multiple factors at play, nonferrous metals may emerge as a core asset in this slow bull market.
[The "Metal Heart" of Future Industries, the "Golden Blood" of Modern Industry] Different nonferrous metals exhibit varying growth trends, cycles, and drivers, making diversification inevitable. For investors bullish on the sector, a broad-based approach like the Nonferrous Metals Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) can capture beta returns while mitigating single-metal risks. The ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, with copper (27.6%), gold (14.5%), aluminum (13.1%), rare earths (10.4%), and lithium (8.4%) as key weightings, offering diversified exposure.
Risk Disclosure: The Nonferrous Metals Leaders ETF and its linked funds passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (base date: December 31, 2013; launch date: July 13, 2015). The index’s annual returns for the past five years are: 2020: +35.84%; 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%. Constituent stocks are adjusted per index rules, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock mentions are illustrative and not investment advice or indicative of fund holdings. The fund is rated R3 (moderate risk) and suitable for balanced (C3) or higher-risk investors. Investment decisions are at the investor’s discretion, and no liability is assumed for direct/indirect losses from using this information. Fund investments carry risks; past performance is not indicative of future results.
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