On May 14, the international gold price has been consolidating around the $4,700 level, with market sentiment oscillating between persistent inflationary pressures and safe-haven demand. The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, indicating inflation stickiness significantly higher than previous market expectations. This has led to rising short-term interest rates, creating periodic pressure on gold prices. Concurrently, uncertainty in the Middle East situation has simultaneously boosted safe-haven buying, resulting in a market where bullish and bearish factors are interwoven. The factors influencing gold prices have recently become notably more diverse. The issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, keeping international oil prices elevated and further exacerbating inflation transmission pathways. Consequently, market expectations for a decline in medium-to-long-term real interest rates are beginning to build. At the same time, annual gold purchases by multiple central banks have remained steady, reinforcing gold's strategic role as a tool for diversifying foreign exchange reserves and solidifying underlying demand support. From a technical perspective, gold faces resistance around the $4,750 level. A decisive break above this level could open the path for an upward move towards $4,900 and even $5,000. Key support lies in the $4,650 to $4,700 range, where buyers and sellers have been repeatedly testing the market. Short-term traders are advised to closely monitor changes in trading volume and the closing price's relationship to key moving averages to avoid chasing rallies or selling into weakness. Looking ahead, with geopolitical tensions showing no significant signs of easing and the Federal Reserve's policy path remaining uncertain, gold is expected to maintain a volatile but slightly stronger trend. Investors should participate rationally based on their own risk tolerance, managing positions through strategies such as phased accumulation, strict stop-loss orders, and position sizing control, avoiding heavy, one-sided bets during periods of extreme market sentiment.
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