According to Woofun AI, the merger between SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) has been characterized as "inevitable" by investor Gary Black, with the core deal structure locked in as a stock-for-stock exchange. Although the market widely expects such an integration to unlock tremendous value, Black explicitly pointed out that this stock-swap model will not deliver the massive profits Tesla (TSLA.US) investors anticipate, and the inevitability of the merger stems primarily from Elon Musk's absolute control over voting rights at both companies rather than from pure market valuation logic.
Black conducted an in-depth breakdown of the deal details, predicting that the acquisition price SpaceX (SPCX.US) offers for Tesla (TSLA.US) will be around $420 per share, but he emphasized that this valuation carries significant time-decay risk. From deal announcement to final completion is expected to take 6 to 12 months, during which the share price "is very likely to be depressed." The more critical variable lies in the mismatch of valuation systems: even if SpaceX (SPCX.US) offers a 15%-20% premium, the combined entity's EBITDA or earnings per share will still follow the acquirer SpaceX's (SPCX.US) relatively lower EV/EBITDA valuation multiple, which directly limits the scope for value creation.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that Elon Musk holds 48% of the converted SPCX shares and 10.5% of TSLA shares, and this ownership structure means any transaction comes with severe equity dilution. Black has repeatedly questioned on the X platform why TSLA investors view this merger as a value-enhancing factor, arguing that under the dual squeeze of SPCX's low valuation multiple and dilution effects, the so-called premium cannot translate into real windfall profits for shareholders, making the deal far less attractive than market optimism suggests.
In stark contrast, multiple institutions hold extremely optimistic views on Tesla (TSLA.US) and the merger prospects. Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, released a report predicting that Tesla (TSLA.US) shares could rise nearly 1,100% by 2031, with a target price as high as $4,400, and asserted that Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) will complete their merger within five years. Ark Invest believes that Tesla's (TSLA.US) future enterprise value will mainly derive from its robotaxi business.
Since Tesla (TSLA.US) launched its high-performance Roadster electric vehicle equipped with Gas thrusters supplied by SpaceX (SPCX.US), discussion about a merger between the two companies has continued to heat up. Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management and well-known bull Dan Ives both predicted under this backdrop that a merger is imminent, focusing more on the long-term growth potential from technological synergies rather than short-term valuation multiple constraints.
Market sentiment appears cautious amid divergent views. During pre-market trading on Tuesday, SPCX shares fell 0.99% to $146.49, while TSLA shares also came under pressure, dropping 0.27% to $367.06. This immediate reaction indicates that despite the grand merger narrative, investor concerns about short-term valuation logic and dilution risk are being reflected in pricing. This marks yet another occasion, following multiple cross-industry integration rumors, that the market is calmly scrutinizing the financial substance of a "merger of giants," and the convergence effect of valuation multiples may impact the share price before technological synergies do.
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