China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) believes that as the power of individual AI chips surpasses the 1000W milestone, traditional power architectures are approaching their physical limits. To support future gigawatt-level computing demands, data center power systems are at a critical inflection point, transitioning completely from alternating current (AC) to 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC). This is not merely an increase in voltage level but a supply chain revolution involving a fundamental architectural overhaul.
On January 15, CSC pointed out in its latest report that investors should focus on the segments with the most concentrated value and the highest technical barriers within this transformation. These include core incremental components such as providers of 800V power supply units (PSU/HVDC/SST) and the essential solid-state circuit breakers and third-generation semiconductors (SiC/GaN) required to solve the DC arc extinction challenge. For investors, this represents not just a technological iteration but a tangible reallocation of industrial profits.
Physical limits are forcing an architectural overhaul: a slimming revolution from a "soda bottle" to a "lipstick." CSC identified the fundamental driver of this power revolution: the exponential growth in computing density. As single-chip power, represented by NVIDIA's Blackwell B200, breaks through 1000W and with the potential for further increases from the future Rubin architecture, power per rack is advancing towards the megawatt (MW) level. The report analyzes that the existing 415V AC power supply system is struggling to cope with such formidable power density. The report cites a striking data comparison to illustrate the necessity of upgrading to 800V: when transmitting 500kW-level power, sticking with the traditional 50V voltage level would require copper busbars with a staggering diameter of 56mm, as thick as a soda bottle, which is completely unacceptable in server racks where space is at a premium. However, once the voltage is increased to ±400V (i.e., an 800V system), the conductor diameter plummets to 14mm, comparable only to the thickness of a lipstick. The report contends that this enormous physical advantage makes high-voltage, direct-current systems not an option but an inevitable direction for data center development. By adopting 800V DC power, not only is copper usage significantly reduced, but the power delivery structure is also simplified, making it possible to transmit greater power.
NVIDIA's white paper sets the tone: The ultimate path of Sidecar racks and SST. The report provides an in-depth interpretation of NVIDIA's published 800V power supply white paper, viewing it as establishing a clear evolutionary path for the industry. NVIDIA's outlined roadmap indicates that power supply solutions will progress from "AC" to "800V DC (transitional)," then to "800V DC (Sidecar solution)," and ultimately evolve to the final form of "Solid-State Transformer (SST)." Particularly noteworthy is the trend towards "externalizing the power supply." As power surges, the power supply modules occupy an increasingly larger portion of the rack space. If traditional solutions continue to be used, power supplies could occupy nearly half of the rack space, leading to a decrease in computational density. Consequently, both NVIDIA and the Open Compute Project (OCP) favor decoupling the power supply, forming what is known as the Sidecar solution. The report analyzes that this architectural shift directly spawns new hardware demands: HVDC main units and SSTs. SST, in particular, is regarded by the report as the ultimate power supply solution. It can directly step down medium-voltage AC from the grid to 800V DC in a single stage. Although the technology is currently in the pilot phase, its potential to save on transformers and improve efficiency is immense.
The hardware upgrade dividend: The rise of 30kW modules and solid-state circuit breakers. At the specific hardware level, the CSC report emphasizes the leap in power density for Power Supply Units (PSUs). To adapt to the 800V architecture, single PSU power is advancing from the current 3kW/5.5kW level to the 30kW level. This process significantly raises technical barriers and value concentration, as achieving such high-power conversion within a limited volume necessitates the extensive adoption of third-generation wide-bandgap semiconductor devices like Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN). Furthermore, the report specifically highlights a crucial new incremental component: the solid-state circuit breaker. Because direct current lacks a zero-crossing point, traditional mechanical switches generate persistent and difficult-to-extinguish arcs when interrupting high-voltage DC, posing a significant safety hazard. NVIDIA explicitly recommends using solid-state circuit breakers for protection in its 800V white paper, leveraging semiconductor devices to achieve microsecond-fast shutdown and arc-less interruption. The report considers this the optimal solution to the challenge of interrupting HVDC and a mandatory component in the future safety systems of data centers.
Investment compass: Targeting high barriers and core increments. Based on the above industrial logic, the CSC report advises investors to closely monitor companies aligned with the trends of 800V high voltage and DC conversion. The report believes investment opportunities are mainly concentrated in four areas: Firstly, the AIDC power supply unit segment, which has the highest value concentration and technical barriers, including PSU, HVDC, and SST equipment. Secondly, the core components born to address the pain points of high-voltage DC, especially new incremental parts like solid-state circuit breakers, rack-level DC/DC converters, and electronic fuses. Finally, the underlying materials enabling high power density—third-generation semiconductors (GaN, SiC). The report firmly believes that in this round of energy revolution driven by AI computing power, companies capable of providing high-voltage DC solutions will achieve significant alpha returns.
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