Guojin Securities Initiates Coverage on ALPHAMAB-B (09966) with "Buy" Rating, Target Price HK$14.30

Stock News2025-12-22

Guojin Securities released a research report forecasting ALPHAMAB-B's (09966) revenue for 2025/2026/2027 at RMB443 million/RMB486 million/RMB550 million, representing year-on-year changes of -30.87%/+9.78%/+13.22%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at -RMB105 million/-RMB98 million/-RMB24 million, showing YoY changes of -162.91%/+6.62%/+75.61%. Using the DCF valuation method, the firm set a target price of HK$14.30 per share and initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating. Key points from Guojin Securities include:

1. **Pioneer in Antibody Technology, HER2 Bispecific Antibody Nearing Approval** ALPHAMAB-B focuses on R&D, production, and commercialization of innovative biologics in oncology. Its core technology platforms include self-developed bispecific antibodies and ADC technology. The company's KN035, the world's first PD-L1 subcutaneous injection, was approved in November 2021, with projected sales and royalty fees of RMB130 million/RMB128 million/RMB125 million for 2025/2026/2027.

The self-developed HER2 bispecific antibody KN026 demonstrated strong efficacy in mPFS and mOS for 2L+ HER2-positive gastric cancer at ESMO. Its NDA for this indication was accepted by the NMPA in September 2025, with expected approval in H2 2026. KN026's NDA for 1L breast cancer and neoadjuvant breast cancer is expected in H1 2026, with projected sales contributions of RMB5 million/RMB74 million/RMB123 million for 2026/2027/2028.

2. **JSKN003: Differentiated Competitive Edge via Innovation** JSKN003, ALPHAMAB-B's self-developed HER2 bispecific ADC, is advancing Phase III trials in China for multiple indications. In platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, it has shown superior efficacy and safety compared to Enhertu, with data readout and production application expected in 2027. An NDA for 2L HER2-positive breast cancer is planned for submission to the CDE in 2026. A Phase III trial for HER2-positive metastatic colorectal cancer was initiated in October 2025. Projected sales contributions for JSKN003 are RMB5 million/RMB57 million/RMB108 million for 2027/2028/2029.

3. **Dual Drivers: Differentiated Targets and Proprietary Conjugation Platform** Leveraging its proprietary glycosylation site-specific conjugation platform and differentiated target strategy, ALPHAMAB-B has built a diversified bispecific ADC pipeline: - JSKN016: The world's first TROP2/HER3 bispecific ADC, with over 400 patients enrolled in lung and breast cancer trials, showing broad market potential. - JSKN022: The first-in-class PD-L1/ITGB6 bispecific ADC, which dosed its first patient in October. - JSKN027: A first-in-class bispecific ADC with cytotoxic, anti-angiogenic, and immunomodulatory mechanisms, expected to file an IND soon.

**Risk Factors**: Clinical trial delays, underwhelming R&D outcomes, and slower-than-expected commercialization.

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