Financial Intelligence reported that CICC has released a research note predicting a bottom reversal for leading cross-border e-commerce sellers starting in 2026, as the trade environment stabilizes, inventory pressures ease, and weaker players exit the market. The top sellers are expected to grow stronger, benefiting from supply chain efficiency and innovative e-commerce models that give Chinese companies a global competitive edge, though there remains significant room for expansion in seller scale.
Agile supply chains, digitalization, and AI transformation are building moats for sellers. The firm is optimistic about the operational turnaround and market share gains of leading cross-border sellers, driven by compliance, brand leadership, and AI adoption. CICC's key views are as follows:
Cross-Border E-Commerce Growth in 2026, Top Sellers Set for Operational Reversal
From 2020 to 2023, the pandemic boosted overseas e-commerce penetration, with multiple catalysts like consumer subsidies in Europe and the US and Chinese platforms expanding globally, leading to an influx of cross-border sellers and intensified competition. Starting in 2024, Sino-US trade frictions, tighter platform rules, reduced traffic support, stricter cross-border tax declarations, and logistics supervision have increased operational pressures, with smaller sellers facing particular challenges. From 2026 onward, as the trade environment stabilizes, inventory pressures are digested, and weaker players are weeded out, CICC believes top cross-border sellers will see a bottom reversal, with the strong becoming stronger.
Global Industry Rapidly Expands, Chinese Sellers Lead, but Individual Scale Has Room to Grow
Cross-border e-commerce efficiently connects high-quality domestic production with overseas demand for value for money, driving rapid industry expansion with a diversification of brand, supply chain, and platform-based sellers. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's cross-border e-commerce export volume grew at a CAGR of 15.9% from 2020 to 2025. Benefiting from supply chain efficiency and e-commerce model innovation, Chinese companies lead global competition. However, due to distant target markets, lengthy business chains, and difficult capability transfer, the number of Chinese cross-border sellers is large but their scale is small. According to MarketplacePulse, while about 50% of Amazon's active sellers in 2025 were from China, among the top 100 and 5,001–10,000 ranked brands by sales in July 2026, Chinese sellers' GMV accounted for 6.8% and 45.1%, respectively, indicating significant room for scale improvement.
Product Branding as a Foundation, Agile Supply Chains, Digitalization, and AI Transformation Build Sellers' Moats
1) Product quality is the foundational capability of cross-border sellers. Brand-oriented sellers focus on product differentiation, using proprietary brands to achieve quality growth, while supply chain-oriented sellers emphasize rapid response across multiple categories, leveraging stable supply to support business expansion. 2) Agile supply chains determine operational efficiency, with small-batch, fast-response flexible supply chains being the core of competition. Brand-oriented sellers improve turnover through streamlined production and centralized raw material procurement, while supply chain-oriented sellers accelerate response with flexible purchasing. 3) Digitalization and AI transformation enable centralized scheduling. Given the long business chains in cross-border e-commerce, sellers need to use AI tools and digital management for resource centralization and refined operations to improve per capita efficiency.
Risks
Geopolitical and trade friction risks; changes in platform rules; intensified industry competition; weaker-than-expected overseas demand; exchange rate fluctuations; and rising raw material price risks.
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