On January 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released the 2025 economic data, revealing that the gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed the 140 trillion yuan mark for the first time, registering a growth rate of 5% compared to the previous year. Faced with an increasingly complex international economic environment and frequent geopolitical conflicts, the Chinese economy withstood pressure, advanced towards innovation and quality, successfully achieved the growth target set at the beginning of the year, and maintained a leading growth rate among the world's major economies. The steady expansion of the economic scale in 2025, combined with the continuous upgrading of supply and demand structures and the steady development and accumulation of new quality productive forces, has laid a solid foundation for high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
From the demand side, domestic demand is continuously being unleashed, with consumption playing a significant role in driving economic growth. In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods surpassed the new threshold of 50 trillion yuan, and the contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. This achievement benefited from the precise implementation of policies to boost consumption. On one hand, the expanded and intensified "trade-in" policy yielded noticeable results, driving double-digit growth in retail sales of goods such as communication equipment and household appliances; on the other hand, demand for upgraded goods accelerated, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods, gold, silver, and jewelry growing rapidly. Simultaneously, new consumption models that meet residents' demands for quality and personalization gained vitality, with sales in emerging formats like warehouse membership stores and multi-brand retailers growing rapidly, indicating a continuous shift towards a new and optimized consumption structure.
Currently, we are in a critical period of transitioning between old and new growth drivers. Although the total investment volume has slowed to some extent due to factors like the slowdown in traditional sectors, the investment structure is accelerating its optimization and upgrade. By coordinating the use of central budget investment, ultra-long-term special government bonds, and local government special bonds, policy funds are focused on key areas such as the "Two Major Projects" and the construction of a modern industrial system. This has driven relatively fast growth in infrastructure investment in key sectors, with investment in pipeline transport, production and supply of electric power and heat, and water conservancy projects all achieving double-digit growth. The policy promoting large-scale equipment renewal continues to exert force, making the contribution of investment in equipment, tools, and instruments increasingly prominent; its share of total investment has risen to 18%, becoming an important measure for optimizing the supply structure and enhancing investment efficiency.
From the supply side, the service sector played a key role as a stabilizer for economic growth. In 2025, its contribution to economic growth reached 61.4%, and its share of GDP increased to 57.7%. The development trend of the service sector is stable and improving, with its internal structure showing significant signs of upgrading. On one hand, modern service industries, represented by information transmission, software and IT services, finance, and business services, are flourishing; on the other hand, emerging service formats, represented by live-streaming e-commerce and instant retail, are growing rapidly driven by digital and intelligent technologies, continuously enriching digital application scenarios. At the same time, the level of openness in the service sector continues to deepen, with cross-border e-commerce and digital trade becoming new growth points.
The construction of a modern industrial system is advancing solidly, with the cultivation and development of new quality productive forces becoming a key characteristic. High-tech manufacturing shows strong growth momentum, playing a prominent role in leading the high-quality development of the industrial sector. Among these, the share of equipment manufacturing continues to increase, with high-value-added industries such as railway, ship, aerospace and other transport equipment, electrical machinery, and medical instruments and equipment experiencing rapid growth. Driven by cutting-edge technologies like embodied AI and human-machine collaboration, new economic growth points such as robotics are rapidly emerging. Simultaneously, the optimization and upgrade of traditional industries are accelerating, the supply of green and low-carbon products is increasing, and the green transition process is steadily advancing, collectively shaping a high-quality development pattern where the supply system moves towards optimization and innovation.
It is also important to recognize that challenges remain in economic operations. The impact of changes in the external environment is deepening, structural issues of strong supply versus weak demand domestically persist, and risks and hidden dangers in key areas still need to be resolved. However, it is crucial to understand that most of these are issues arising from the development process and the transformation and upgrading phase; the supporting conditions and fundamental trend of long-term improvement in China's economy have not changed. Leveraging the strategic depth of a mega-sized market, the solid foundation of a complete industrial system, and the increasing capacity for continuous innovation, the future development prospects are broad, with immense resilience and potential.
In the face of challenges, China will implement more proactive and effective macro policies, focusing on simultaneously driving the continuous expansion of domestic demand and the optimization of the supply structure. On the demand side, efforts should be deepened to advance the construction of a unified national market to fully unleash domestic demand; on the supply side, it is necessary to develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions, injecting new momentum into economic growth. Through a series of systematic measures, this will help promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, ensuring a good start and a solid first step for the "15th Five-Year Plan". Based on the gradual manifestation of policy effects, 2026 is expected to maintain steady economic growth, the price level is likely to rebound moderately, and the perceived temperature of the economic climate for both enterprises and residents is expected to further improve.
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