Strategy closed at USD 128.56, down 3.12%.
Despite the daily decline, MSTR’s options tape displayed pronounced bullish conviction. The session was highlighted by a $1.68 million net-credit bull put spread and a $2.36 million long call purchase, both indicating that large traders are positioning for medium-term upside rather than bracing for further downside. These oversized directional bets overshadowed smaller mixed flows and suggest institutional confidence in MSTR’s ability to stabilize and resume its upward trajectory.
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Options Indicators
MSTR’s implied volatility stands at 79.58%, while its IV percentile is 30.28%, which places current option pricing in a broadly neutral volatility regime, though still leaning toward the lower end of its recent range rather than an elevated one. With the IV/HV ratio at 0.77, implied volatility is running below historical volatility, suggesting the options market is pricing future movement somewhat more conservatively than what the stock has recently realized. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.89.
Large Trades
A bullish bull put spread with a net credit of $1.68 million was the largest highlighted trade, using the March 19, 2027 expiration to express a constructive medium-term view on MSTR. The trader sold the 130.0 put, which was in the money versus the $128.56 reference stock price, and bought the 110.0 put, which was out of the money, creating a classic defined-risk bullish put spread. Because this structure was done for a net credit, the strategic intent is premium collection while positioning for the stock to stay firm or improve over time, with the long 110.0 put serving as downside protection against a deeper selloff.
A call purchase worth $2.36 million was the other displayed large trade, with the buyer taking 1,500 contracts of the 135.0 call expiring November 20, 2026. With the strike above the current stock reference of $128.56, the option was out of the money at entry, making this a straightforward bullish directional bet on upside over a long-dated horizon. The size and tenor suggest the buyer was seeking leveraged participation in a sustained advance rather than short-term income, reinforcing a view that MSTR could trade materially higher before expiration.
Overall, the bulk-order flow points clearly bullish. The standout trades were both constructive: a sizable net-credit bull put spread that monetizes confidence in price stability to higher levels, and a large long call that targets upside with time for the thesis to develop. Even though there were some premium-selling and mildly bearish call structures elsewhere in the tape, the dominant character of the largest and aggregated directional flow indicates traders were leaning toward further upside in MSTR rather than preparing for a sustained decline.
Strategy Reference
For a seller seeking low assignment probability, the March 2027 100.00 put offers a more conservative short strike than the 130.00 put used in the highlighted spread, sitting further below the current $128.56 reference; alternatively, a bull call spread such as buying the 135.00 call and selling the 160.00 call expiring November 2026 can reduce net premium outlay while maintaining upside exposure.
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