Cansino Biologics Inc.'s 2025 mid-year financial results appear promising on the surface, but beneath this performance lies deep-seated concerns for the former vaccine industry star. The reality that its core business has yet to achieve genuine profitability raises questions about the sustainability of its financial improvement. The driving force behind the company's revenue growth stems from the volume expansion of a single vaccine product, which may face increasingly fierce market competition. As more competitors enter the market, the stability of its market position faces challenges, while subsequent products in its research pipeline have failed to demonstrate clear competitive advantages.
A more fundamental issue is that the company has consistently failed to establish a stable profit model over many years. Under high cost pressures, neither continuous R&D investment nor heavy promotional spending on the sales front has translated into effective profit support, instead exacerbating operational uncertainty.
**Performance Recovery Masks Underlying Issues**
Cansino Biologics recently delivered what appeared to be an impressive first-half 2025 performance report. The results showed the company achieved operating revenue of 382 million yuan in the first half, representing a 26% year-over-year increase; net loss of 13.4854 million yuan, significantly narrowing by 94.02% compared to the 225 million yuan loss in the same period last year.
However, beneath this seemingly positive financial report lies concerns for this former "COVID-19 vaccine frontrunner."
Specifically, Cansino's revenue growth in the first half of 2025 primarily relied on volume expansion of its meningococcal vaccine product from a relatively low base; the narrowed losses were mainly driven by non-recurring gains and losses, such as government subsidies and investment income, with adjusted net loss still reaching 85.9 million yuan.
Notably, Cansino's core business has yet to achieve profitability, casting doubt on the sustainability of this financial improvement.
From a product perspective, Cansino faces the issue of product structure singularity. In the first half of this year, the company's revenue growth mainly depended on meningococcal vaccines (Manhaixin® and MCV2), with sales revenue of 364 million yuan, up 38.43% year-over-year, accounting for 95.3% of total revenue. Among these, Manhaixin®, as China's only quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, contributed over 90% of revenue from a single product.
However, experts believe this product carries certain risks. Industry analyst Yuan Shuai notes that from a product pipeline risk perspective, 91% of Cansino's current revenue structure depends on the meningococcal vaccine "Manhaixin." However, the competitive landscape for domestic quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines has become increasingly severe, with approvals expanding to three companies, as competitors like Zhifei and Watson enter the market.
In such an intensely competitive environment, there is significant uncertainty about whether "Manhaixin" can maintain its exclusive volume period for more than three years. As competitor products launch and gain promotion, market share competition will intensify further, and "Manhaixin" may face pricing pressure and risk of market share erosion.
While "Manhaixin" faces compression risks, Cansino's other products in development may also lack advantages in market competition. Yuan Shuai believes the company's PCV13i (pneumococcal vaccine) in development does not show obvious advantages in pricing and protection rates compared to Pfizer's Prevnar 13. Pfizer's Prevnar 13, as a globally recognized product, enjoys high brand recognition and market share. For PCV13i to stand out in the market, it needs to be more competitive in pricing while providing sufficient clinical data to prove its protection rate advantages; otherwise, it will struggle to secure a position in fierce market competition.
Regarding net profit, although Cansino's losses narrowed significantly in the first half, profit sources included substantial non-recurring gains and losses, leaving the problem of unprofitable core business unresolved. Financial reports show that non-recurring gains and losses totaled over 72 million yuan in the first half, surging 148.44% year-over-year, mainly including approximately 23 million yuan in government subsidies and about 19.55 million yuan in fair value change gains from trading financial assets, together accounting for 58.8% of non-recurring gains and losses.
**Unable to Achieve Stable Profitability**
Reviewing Cansino's performance in recent years reveals the company has yet to find a method for sustained profitability. Wind data shows Cansino's net profit over the past five years has exhibited dramatic volatility of "loss—massive profit—deep loss—narrowed loss." Except for 2021, when it achieved profitability due to short-term COVID-19 vaccine volume expansion, all other years showed losses, reflecting the unsustainability of its profit model.
The 19.07 billion yuan net profit in 2021 was the only profitable year, primarily relying on COVID-19 vaccine sales revenue (annual revenue of 4.3 billion yuan that year, with vaccine product sales accounting for 100%). As global COVID-19 vaccine demand receded, 2022 revenue plummeted to 1.035 billion yuan with net profit turning to loss; 2023 revenue further declined to 357 million yuan with net loss expanding to 1.967 billion yuan, exposing severe dependence on a single emergency product.
High total operating costs are the main reason the company cannot achieve stable profitability. From 2021-2023, the company's total operating costs remained around 2.4 billion yuan, far exceeding revenue for the same periods. In 2022, company revenue was 1.035 billion yuan, but operating costs reached 2.365 billion yuan; in 2023, revenue was 357 million yuan while operating costs reached 2.471 billion yuan. In 2024, costs decreased to 1.227 billion yuan but still exceeded revenue of 846 million yuan.
On the other hand, the company has adopted a cash-burning strategy for both R&D and sales; but judging from results, the effectiveness has been minimal. Data shows cumulative R&D expenses over the past five years exceeded 3.1 billion yuan, with 2020-2024 figures of 428 million yuan, 879 million yuan, 778 million yuan, 638 million yuan, and 416 million yuan respectively. R&D investment in 2024 accounted for 60.35%, far exceeding industry average levels. However, looking at R&D results, aside from COVID-19 vaccines, no other products have achieved large-scale profitability. Moreover, PCV13i in the research pipeline has received approval, but combined with expert opinions mentioned earlier, this product carries high uncertainty.
Heavy sales expenses are also eroding the company's meager profits. To promote new products, sales expenses continue growing. Cansino's promotional expenses reached 173 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 49.04% of sales expenses; by 2024, this figure further increased to 199 million yuan. High sales investment has not brought proportional revenue growth, with the 2023 sales expense ratio of 57.91% far exceeding industry average levels, possibly reflecting the company's inefficient marketing.
Whether Cansino can break through its predicament and achieve stable profitability in the future remains to be seen.
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